有色金属行业报告：稀土新规拟出台，提升战略属性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold has outperformed silver, aligning with the previous recommendation to go long on the gold-silver ratio. Following the release of US consumer data, the likelihood of stagflation has increased, favoring gold over silver during such periods. COMEX gold prices rose by 1.93%, while silver increased by 0.52%. The report suggests that during stagflation, gold is the optimal investment, and it is recommended to go long on both the gold-silver and gold-copper ratios [5]. - The expectation of the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is seen as a positive for copper prices, although there are concerns about global demand due to potential trade barriers in 2025. LME copper prices increased by 1.42% in response to these expectations [6]. - Aluminum prices are steadily rising, with domestic aluminum prices increasing by 0.80%. The report notes that the price of alumina has dropped to 3300 CNY/ton, but the overall demand is expected to improve, supporting aluminum prices [6]. - Antimony prices have slightly increased, with domestic prices around 150,000 CNY/ton and overseas prices at approximately 50,000 USD/ton. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in export demand, which may narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is drafting new regulations for rare earth mining, which could lead to a new round of price increases in the rare earth market. The report indicates that the ongoing conflict in Myanmar is contributing to supply shortages, which may further drive up prices [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4593.64, with a 52-week high of 4979.91 and a low of 3700.9 [2]. Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper up by 1.42%, aluminum up by 1.10%, zinc up by 1.69%, lead up by 1.01%, and tin up by 2.73%. In precious metals, COMEX gold rose by 1.93%, and silver by 0.52% [19]. Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed an increase in copper by 9963 tons, a decrease in aluminum by 11727 tons, a decrease in zinc by 6744 tons, an increase in lead by 1522 tons, an increase in tin by 462 tons, and an increase in nickel by 6724 tons [28].