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Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has intensified sanctions against Iran and Russia, raising concerns about their oil exports, but current data shows no significant impact on their maritime exports[3] - Future U.S. sanctions on Iran may escalate to "extreme sanctions" which could further affect oil supply dynamics[3] Economic Indicators - Major economies like China and the Eurozone saw a rebound in January CPI, while U.S. manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold, indicating mixed economic signals[3] - Key indicators such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates need to be monitored for future economic trends[3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has extended its production cut of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026, with voluntary cuts from 8 countries delayed until April 2025[3] - Non-OPEC+ countries, including the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, are expected to gradually increase production, potentially covering the global demand increase in 2025[3] Price Forecast - The Brent crude oil price is expected to fluctuate between $70 and $85 per barrel, reflecting a supply surplus in the medium to long term[4] - The overall market sentiment suggests a strategy of short-selling on price spikes due to geopolitical tensions[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic improvements, escalation of geopolitical tensions, and lower-than-expected U.S. production increases[6]