港股通数据统计周报 2025.11.10-2025.11.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.11.10-2025.11.16） | | 序号 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 净买入金额(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 | 1810. HK | 小米集团-W | 信息技术 | 105862338 | 44. 84 | | 2 | 0883. HK | 中国海洋石油 | 能源 | 147299898 | 33.00 | | 3 | 1398. HK | 工商银行 | 金融 | 319540224 | 20. 99 | | 4 | 2318. HK | ...

港股市场估值周报 2025.11.10-2025.11.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股市场重要指数估值 l 港股市场各行业估值水平 l AH股溢价/折价水平 港股市场 重要指数估值 3 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 4 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 5 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 6 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 7 资料来源：Wind 8 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 9 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 港股市场 各行业估值水平 10 港股市场各行业估值水平 资料来源：Wind，浙商国际 11 l 港股市场各行业PE估值水平 n 我们选取了2018年初以来的港股市场各个主 要行业的PE (TTM)为样本，来看当 ...

Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology [3][6] - The market experienced significant fluctuations in October, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a peak on October 2 before declining due to concerns over US-China trade tensions, ultimately closing below 26,000 points [4][13] - The macroeconomic environment shows a weakening fundamental backdrop, with domestic economic data indicating a continued bottoming phase, while policy focus is on technological innovation and expanding domestic demand [5][31] Group 2 - In October, the valuation levels of the Hong Kong stock market decreased, with the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio dropping from 13.18 to 12.76, indicating a market valuation above the five-year average [19][20] - Southbound capital inflows showed a significant decrease in October, with net purchases amounting to 92.5 billion HKD, although the overall trend remains positive, providing liquidity support to the market [25][30] - The performance of various sectors in October was mixed, with defensive sectors like energy and utilities rebounding while previously strong sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals faced corrections [14][19] Group 3 - The domestic economic outlook is closely tied to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the majority of earnings coming from Chinese companies, highlighting the importance of monitoring China's economic indicators [31] - Key economic data for September showed a GDP growth of 4.8%, with retail sales growth slowing to 3.0%, indicating weakening consumer demand [32][33] - Investment in fixed assets continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 7.1% in September, primarily driven by a significant decrease in real estate investment [36][44] Group 4 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and industrial upgrading, aiming to enhance domestic demand and improve the consumption environment [64] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and cautious stance on future rate adjustments are critical factors influencing the Hong Kong market, as external economic conditions remain uncertain [65][66] - The overall economic environment in the US shows moderate expansion, but uncertainties persist, particularly regarding inflation and employment data, which could impact market sentiment [67][68]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China National Offshore Oil Corporation (0883.HK) with a net buy amount of ¥24.43 billion, representing a significant increase in holdings of 123,573,000 shares[8] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK) ranks second with a net buy of ¥20.81 billion, with 27,741,774 shares added[8] - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) is the top net sell company, with a net sell amount of -¥20.96 billion, reflecting a decrease of 12,692,433 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The energy sector saw the highest net buy amount, led by China National Offshore Oil Corporation, contributing to a total of ¥24.43 billion in net buys[8] - The telecommunications sector, represented by China Mobile (0941.HK), had a net buy of ¥17.44 billion, indicating strong investor interest[8] - The healthcare sector experienced significant net sells, with companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK) showing a net sell of -¥13.54 billion[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba (9988.HK) was the most actively traded stock with a total trading volume of ¥58.52 billion, despite a net sell of -¥4.81 billion[18] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK) had a trading volume of ¥43.31 billion, with a slight net sell of -¥0.78 billion[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) recorded a trading volume of ¥30.98 billion, with a net sell of -¥1.72 billion, indicating volatility in investor sentiment[18]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate decreased to 72.72% from 73.14%, a change of -0.42%[7] - The blast furnace operating rate fell to 81.73% from 84.73%, a decrease of -3%[7] - The PX operating rate increased to 87.93% from 86.33%, an increase of 1.60%[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to 20,900,000 CNY from 26,200,000 CNY, a decline of 5,300,000 CNY[7] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars increased to 71,381.65 units from 70,552.8 units, an increase of 828.85 units[7] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars rose to 89,279.50 units from 87,047.80 units, an increase of 2,231.70 units[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased to 198.27 million square meters from 199.93 million square meters, a decline of 1.65%[7] - The transaction area of second-hand housing in major cities fell to 213,745.29 square meters from 231,164.61 square meters, a decrease of 17,419.32 square meters[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities slightly decreased to 3.89% from 3.93%, a change of -0.04%[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose to 1,550.70 from 1,403.46, an increase of 147.24[8] - The average wholesale price of pork increased to 17.8 CNY/kg from 17.73 CNY/kg, a rise of 0.07 CNY[8] - The average wholesale price of vegetables increased to 5.69 CNY/kg from 5.37 CNY/kg, an increase of 0.32 CNY[8] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing increased to 1,047.78 million trips from 1,042.37 million trips, an increase of 5.41 million trips[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 12,374.71 from 12,897.71, a decline of 523 flights[8]

Group 1: Weekly Buyback Statistics - The total number of companies conducting buybacks this week is 49, a decrease from 60 last week[13] - The total buyback amount this week is HKD 470 million, an increase from HKD 320 million last week[13] - China Feihe (6186.HK) ranks first with a buyback amount of HKD 104 million this week[13] Group 2: Top Buyback Companies - The top ten companies by buyback amount include China Feihe with HKD 10,422.82 million, accounting for 0.28% of total shares[12] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) ranks second with a buyback amount of HKD 4,070.62 million, representing 0.02% of total shares[12] - Sinopec (0386.HK) ranks third with a buyback amount of HKD 3,484.77 million, which is 0.01% of total shares[12] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The majority of buyback amounts are concentrated in the consumer staples, healthcare, and information technology sectors[16] - The healthcare sector has the highest number of companies initiating buybacks, with 14 companies participating[16] - The information technology sector follows with 11 companies conducting buybacks[16]

Group 1: Weekly Buyback Statistics - Total buyback amount for the week was HKD 2.93 billion, a significant decrease from HKD 4.84 billion the previous week[10] - Number of companies participating in buybacks increased to 62 from 52 in the previous week[10] - Top buyback company was Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a buyback amount of HKD 1.18 billion, representing 0.09% of its total share capital[9][10] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Buybacks - Buyback amounts were primarily concentrated in the Information Technology and Financial sectors[13] - The highest number of buyback companies was in the Information Technology and Healthcare sectors, each with 16 companies participating[13] - Consumer Discretionary sector ranked second with 11 companies engaging in buybacks[13] Group 3: Notable Buyback Companies - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) ranked second with a buyback amount of HKD 1.15 billion, accounting for 0.07% of its total share capital[9][10] - Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) was third with a buyback amount of HKD 98.41 million, representing 0.03% of its total share capital[9][10] - Other notable companies included 首程控股 (0697.HK) and 联易融科技 (9959.HK) with buyback amounts of HKD 56.48 million and HKD 37.32 million respectively[14][15] Group 4: Market Implications - Large-scale buyback trends often occur during bear markets, indicating companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[24] - Historical data shows that buyback waves in the Hong Kong market since 2008 have been followed by subsequent price increases[24]

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline due to renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking after previous gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng Composite Index dropping by -4.11%, -3.97%, and -7.98% respectively [3][10][13] - Defensive sectors such as utilities and telecommunications showed resilience, while previously high-performing sectors like technology and healthcare faced substantial corrections [3][10][13] Group 2: Market Valuation Levels - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stood at 81.45%, indicating that the valuation level is close to one standard deviation above the 5-year average [3] Group 3: Market Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows weak inflation in September, with CPI down by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.3% [37][43] - The central bank's monetary policy remains supportive, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing growth through proactive measures [37][43] Group 4: Fund Flow Analysis - Southbound capital showed strong buying interest, with a net inflow of 45.089 billion HKD, marking a new high in five weeks and maintaining a streak of 22 consecutive weeks of net inflows [43] - The top net buying companies included Pop Mart, Xiaomi, and China Mobile, indicating a preference for consumer discretionary and technology sectors [32] Group 5: Sector Allocation Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][43] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks are also highlighted as stable performers benefiting from the interest rate cut cycle [3][43]

Group 1: Top Net Buy Companies - The top net buy company is Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a net buy amount of 30.56 billion CNY and a change in holdings of 11,095,857 shares[8] - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) follows with a net buy amount of 29.88 billion CNY and a change in holdings of 65,019,122 shares[8] - China Mobile (0941.HK) ranks third with a net buy amount of 23.84 billion CNY and a change in holdings of 27,952,291 shares[8] Group 2: Top Net Sell Companies - The top net sell company is SMIC (0981.HK) with a net sell amount of -63.04 billion CNY and a change in holdings of -91,228,489 shares[9] - Alibaba (9988.HK) follows with a net sell amount of -40.16 billion CNY and a change in holdings of -26,011,949 shares[9] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) ranks third with a net sell amount of -27.79 billion CNY and a change in holdings of -4,569,909 shares[9] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The report highlights significant net buying in the consumer discretionary sector, particularly in companies like Pop Mart and Meituan[11] - The technology sector shows notable net selling, with companies like SMIC and Tencent experiencing substantial outflows[11] - Financial services also see mixed activity, with both buying and selling observed in major banks like ICBC and CMB[11]

Group 1: Weekly Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was HKD 3.07 billion, a significant decrease from HKD 4.84 billion the previous week[11] - A total of 48 companies conducted buybacks this week, showing a slight decline compared to last week[11] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 2.20 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) at HKD 0.32 billion[11] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Buybacks - The information technology sector had the highest number of companies initiating buybacks, totaling 11 firms[14] - Financial sector companies accounted for 6 buybacks, while industrial, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors each had 8 companies participating[14] - The majority of buyback amounts were concentrated in the information technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors[14] Group 3: Individual Company Buyback Data - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) repurchased 329.80 million shares, representing 0.04% of its total share capital[15] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) bought back 295.68 million shares, which is 0.02% of its total share capital[15] - Anta Sports (2020.HK) repurchased 215.80 million shares, accounting for 0.08% of its total share capital[15] Group 4: Significance of Buybacks - Company buybacks are defined as the repurchase of shares from the secondary market using available cash[23] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[23] - Historical data indicates that buyback waves in the Hong Kong market since 2008 have often preceded subsequent price increases[23]