Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight increase this week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.43%, the Hang Seng Composite Index by 0.59%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.09%, driven primarily by technology stocks [3][13] - The performance of major industry sectors was mixed, with consumer discretionary and information technology sectors leading the gains, reflecting the strong performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index [3][13] - The financial and real estate sectors saw declines of approximately 3% each, while other sectors such as materials and utilities also experienced declines of over 2% [3][13] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 82.82%, indicating that the valuation level is above the 5-year average [3] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was HKD 3.89 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous week's HKD 3.81 billion [27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 2.75 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 640 million, and Hang Seng Bank (0011.HK) with HKD 100 million [27][30] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buy companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy amount of HKD 22.25 billion, BeiGene (6160.HK) with HKD 2.02 billion, and Meituan (3690.HK) with HKD 1.66 billion [34] - The top net sell companies included Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a net sell amount of HKD 1.95 billion, Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with HKD 1.29 billion, and Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) with HKD 768 million [35] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall economic activity data for August continued to weaken compared to the previous month, influenced by high base effects, internal competition, the decline of national subsidies, and cooling real estate activity [44] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that fixed asset investment from January to August reached CNY 3.26 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [39][44] - The macro policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption are still being advanced, with expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [44] Sector Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][44] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price are also seen as favorable, along with local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][44]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 3.89 billion, which is relatively stable compared to last week's HKD 3.81 billion[12] - The number of companies repurchasing shares this week increased to 52 from 49 last week[12] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.75 billion[12] Group 2: Top Companies by Repurchase Amount - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 275,345.84 thousand, accounting for 0.05% of its total share capital[11] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 63,500.92 thousand, representing 0.03% of its total share capital[11] - Hang Seng Bank (0011.HK) ranked third with a repurchase amount of HKD 9,524.56 thousand, which is 0.04% of its total share capital[11] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The majority of repurchase amounts were concentrated in the Information Technology and Financial sectors[15] - The highest number of repurchasing companies came from the Industrial, Information Technology, and Healthcare sectors, each with 10 companies participating[15] - The Consumer Discretionary sector had 8 companies engaging in repurchases, while the Financial sector had 6 companies[15] Group 4: Historical Context - The Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of repurchase trends since 2008, all occurring during bear markets[24] - These repurchase waves are often followed by subsequent market rallies, indicating a potential bullish signal for investors[24]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥22.247 billion with a holding change of 139,830,551 shares[8] - BeiGene (6160.HK) ranked second with a net buy of ¥2.019 billion and a holding change of 10,056,137 shares[8] - Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) was the top net sell company with a net sell amount of -¥1.948 billion and a holding change of -34,353,051 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The financial sector saw a net buy of ¥1.630 billion, primarily driven by China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK)[8][9] - The healthcare industry had a total net buy of ¥3.046 billion, with significant contributions from BeiGene (6160.HK) and Innovent Biologics (9606.HK)[8][9] - The technology sector experienced a net sell of -¥12.94 billion, largely due to Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) and Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) was the most active stock with a total trading volume of ¥70.25 billion and a net buy of ¥4.73 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[18] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK) had a trading volume of ¥62.79 billion with a net sell of -¥3.08 billion on the Shenzhen Stock Connect[18] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) recorded a trading volume of ¥44.40 billion with a net buy of ¥5.68 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the U.S. Treasury bond market is experiencing a turning point in interest rates, driven by economic downturn pressures and anticipated significant changes in Federal Reserve policy next year [4][75]. - The report highlights that the September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with market interpretations suggesting that the positive effects of this decision have been fully priced in, leading to a "V" shaped reversal in bond yields [2][11]. - Economic indicators such as August retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing expectations, which reflects resilience in overall economic demand [5][53]. Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market indicates a significant increase in T-Bill issuance, with the Treasury Department's Q3 refinancing statement maintaining a dovish tone while not increasing long-term debt issuance [21][22]. - The demand side shows that short positions in U.S. Treasuries remain at historically high levels, indicating ongoing basis trading and swap trading activities [26][30]. - The report notes that the relative yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries remains low after currency hedging, suggesting a decrease in overseas institutional investment in U.S. debt [31][35]. Group 3 - The liquidity tracking section indicates that the average daily trading volume of SOFR has risen to approximately $2.3 trillion, reflecting the importance of U.S. Treasuries as collateral in the money market [40][46]. - The liquidity pressure index for the Treasury market remains at a level indicating overall ample liquidity, with the MOVE Index showing a decrease in implied volatility [49]. - The macroeconomic environment tracking suggests that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is adjusting to a more dovish stance, with expectations of further rate cuts in response to economic conditions [60][68].

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 3.81 billion, a decrease from HKD 5.58 billion the previous week[12] - The number of companies repurchasing shares this week was 49, down from 59 last week[12] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.75 billion[12] Group 2: Top Companies by Repurchase Amount - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 275,285.23 thousand, accounting for 0.05% of its total share capital[11] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 49,042.12 thousand, representing 0.03% of its total share capital[11] - Hang Seng Bank (0011.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 12,318.58 thousand, which is 0.06% of its total share capital[11] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The majority of repurchase amounts were concentrated in the Information Technology and Financial sectors[15] - The Information Technology sector had the highest number of repurchasing companies, with 12 firms participating[15] - The Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors each had 9 companies engaging in repurchases[15] Group 4: Significance of Share Buybacks - Share buybacks indicate that companies believe their stock is undervalued, often occurring during bear markets[24] - Repurchases can stabilize investor confidence and signal that the stock price is significantly undervalued[24] - Historical data shows that the Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of buyback trends since 2008, typically followed by price increases[24]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, driven by southbound capital, rising interest rate cut expectations, and technology sector strength, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by +4.07%, +3.82%, and +5.31% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors recorded gains, with the materials sector continuing to perform strongly, achieving a weekly increase of over 6%. The information technology sector, led by major tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent, also saw a weekly increase exceeding 6% [3][13] - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stood at 82.57%, indicating a valuation level above the 5-year average [3] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market remains closely tied to the performance of the Chinese economy, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [39][41] - In August, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.3%, both figures falling short of expectations [39][46] - The People's Bank of China is expected to conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, indicating ongoing monetary support [41] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][46] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks, are also highlighted as favorable [3][46] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts from the US-China trade disputes, with recommendations to avoid sectors and companies with significant exposure to the US market [3][46] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 3.81 billion HKD, a decrease from the previous week's 5.58 billion HKD, with 49 companies participating in buybacks [27][30] - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with 2.75 billion HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings with 490 million HKD [27][30] - The information technology and financial sectors saw the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 12 and 9 companies respectively [30]

Valuation of Hong Kong Stock Market - The report covers the valuation of major indices in the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI), Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) [9][13][17]. Industry Valuation Levels - The report analyzes the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios of various industries since early 2018, indicating that no industries are undervalued (PE below 20%) [24]. - Industries with PE ratios below the 50th percentile include Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology, and Utilities [24]. - The report highlights that industries with relatively high valuations (PE above 50%) include Energy, Materials, Industrials, Healthcare, Financials, and Telecommunications [24]. - For Price-to-Book (PB) ratios, no industries are undervalued (PB below 20%), while Utilities and Real Estate have PB ratios below the 50th percentile [28]. - Industries with high PB valuations (above 50%) include Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Financials, Information Technology, and Telecommunications [28]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report includes insights on the premium/discount levels of AH shares, although specific numerical data is not provided in the summary [32].

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥179.99 billion with a holding change of 119,120,888 shares[8] - Horizon Robotics-W (9660.HK) ranked second with a net buy of ¥37.96 billion, increasing its holdings by 371,459,400 shares[8] - Pop Mart (9992.HK) led the net sell list with a net sell amount of -¥25.29 billion, decreasing its holdings by 9,136,051 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The report highlights significant net buying in the Consumer Discretionary sector, particularly with companies like Alibaba and Meituan[11] - Financial sector companies like Ping An (2318.HK) and AIA (1299.HK) also saw substantial net buying, indicating investor confidence in financial services[8] - The Information Technology sector experienced notable net selling, particularly with companies like Xiaomi and Kuaishou, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) was the most active stock with a total trading volume of ¥87.74 billion and a net buy of ¥20.76 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[18] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) had a trading volume of ¥50.99 billion but recorded a net sell of -¥16.35 billion, indicating a decline in investor interest[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) showed a trading volume of ¥31.72 billion with a slight net buy of ¥1.85 billion, suggesting stable investor confidence[18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount in the Hong Kong stock market for the week was HKD 55.8 billion, a significant increase from HKD 42.5 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases rose to 59, up from 42 in the prior week[10] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase activity with an amount of HKD 275.29 million, followed by China Hongqiao (1378.HK) at HKD 146.01 million[10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The majority of repurchase amounts were concentrated in the financial and materials sectors, indicating a strategic focus in these industries[13] - The information technology sector had the highest number of companies participating in repurchases, totaling 17, while the consumer discretionary sector followed with 15 companies[13] - Notably, the repurchase amount for China Hongqiao represented 0.60% of its total share capital, the highest among the top repurchasing companies[9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The bond market's repair progress this week was poor, and the expected "stock - bond seesaw" effect did not occur despite significant fluctuations in equity indices around the military parade. Long - term 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields changed by - 1.3 and +1 bps to 1.77% and 2.03% respectively, while the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3 bps to 1.39% [3][12]. - From the perspective of fundamentals and monetary policy, although the probability of further weakening of economic data is not low, the bond market still faces significant adjustment pressure. Seasonally, September usually has the weakest market performance, with a yield decline probability of only 17% in the past six years. However, if the 10Y Treasury rate breaks through to 1.8%, the allocation value gradually becomes attractive [6]. - In terms of strategy, the central bank's actions will dominate the bond market trend in September. If the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases, the pressure on the money market may continuously affect market sentiment. Currently, the dumbbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best option [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - Interest - rate bond market: The 1 - year and 3 - year yields rose by 3 and 1 bps respectively, while the yields of 5 - year and above generally declined by 1 - 3 bps. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields changed by - 1.3 and +1 bps to 1.77% and 2.03% respectively. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3 bps to 1.39%. The 10 - year yield of policy - bank bonds remained stable at 1.87% [3][12][15]. - Credit - bond market: On the implied AA+ urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields declined by 2, 1, and 5 bps respectively [15]. Bond Market Primary Issuance - Local government bonds: This week, 934 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of - 30 billion yuan, including 0 billion yuan of new general bonds, 178 billion yuan of new special bonds (162 billion yuan of special special bonds), 756 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20]. - Treasury bonds: This week, 3491 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 2890 billion yuan, including 820 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20]. - Policy - bank bonds: This week, 1205 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 805 billion yuan [20]. Money Market - At the beginning of the month, the central bank routinely withdrew the funds injected across months, but the money - market rates remained low. The overnight rates quickly recovered to pre - cross - month levels on the first day of the month, with R001 and DR001 down 6 and 2 bps respectively to 1.36% and 1.31%. The 7 - day money - market rates showed a similar trend, with R007 and DR007 falling on the first day of the month and then fluctuating around 1.46% and 1.44% [26]. - Most inter - bank certificate of deposit yields rose this week, except for the 1 - month AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit yield, which declined by 0.9 bps to 1.45%. The weighted issuance term extended to 6.1 months [29]. Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 in the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose stance in the second half of the year under the "moderately loose" monetary - policy tone [34]. - This week, the central bank net withdrew 1.2 trillion yuan, including 1.2 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases and 0 trillion yuan from outright reverse repurchases. The net payment of government bonds was 0.1 trillion yuan [34]. - The CPI in July had a 0% year - on - year increase, higher than the expected - 0.1%, while the PPI remained at - 3.6% year - on - year, indicating that price recovery still faces significant pressure. The July social - financing data may not be optimistic [35]. - Given that the Fed is likely to restart rate cuts in September, the expectation of double cuts (interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts) may rise in mid - to - late August [35]. - In the second half of the year, the bond market may experience a strong downward trend from August to September. The 30 - year bond, which has performed weakly recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [35].