中债策略周报 2025.7.28-2025.8.3 分析师： 曹潮 中央编号： BVH841 联系电话： 852-96581360 邮箱： caochao@cnzsqh.hk 1 中国债券场策略周报 - 投资要点 中国债券市场表现回顾： 7月制造业PMI不及预期，反应内需正在走弱；本周商品市场定价同样迎来修正，对债市形成利好，不 同期限收益率均下行。长端方面，10年、30年国债活跃券分别下行3.3、3.4个bps至1.71%、 1.92%，1年期国债下行1个bps至1.37%。 中国债券市场基本面、货币政策与资金面： 中国债券市场展望： 2 基本面和货币政策：7月制造业PMI录得49.3%，低于预期49.7%。新订单分享环比下降0.8个百分点 至49.4%，生产回落0.5个百分点至50.5%，成为制造业PMI下滑的主要拖累，反应内需正在走弱；7 月政治局会议增量信息有限，主要重点在于落实好前期刺激政策安排，以及将重心转向名义增长。货 币政策方面，央行基本等量续作，合计净投放69亿元，其中逆回购投放16632亿元，到期16563亿元。 截至8月1日，逆回购余额16632亿元，较7月25日的16563亿元小幅抬升 ...

策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 8 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 中 债 策 略 月 报 7 月经济数据表现波澜不惊，政策刺激预期主导市场走势，一是雅鲁藏布江水 电站于 19 日官宣开工，项目投资体量达到万亿水平，基建扩张逻辑引领权益、 商品两大市场于 21 日显著上涨；二是"反内卷"行情卷出新高度，各行各业 争相落地相关会议或涨价政策；随着市场风险偏好持续改善，带动上证综指和 深证成指分别录得 3.74%、5.32%的涨幅。债市在"股债跷跷板"、税期前后 资金面超预期收敛等利空因素影响下，表现不佳。展望后续，7 月 PMI 和票据 市场数据显示，需求端仍然偏弱，同时短期政策刺激预期正在回撤；另一方面， 随着商品市场和股市降温，股债跷跷板效应下或对债市形成利多；尽管利率债 收益率难以突破新低，但以 10 年、30 年国债收益率年内低点作为参考，二者 仍存在 10-12bp 的下行空间，叠加久期考量，潜在收益较为可观。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： ...

美债市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 美债市场表现回顾： 美债策略周报 2025.7.28-2025.8.3 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： | 852-96581360 | | 邮箱： | caochao@cnzsqh.hk | 1 n 7月FOMC会议表述偏鹰，但鲍威尔对就业下行风险关注度提升，并对9月降息持开放态度；周五公布的 非农大幅走弱，市场对就业市场韧性进行重新评估，不同期限美债利率均下行，10Y美债周内累计下行 17个bps。 l 美债市场基本面、货币政策和资金面： l 美债市场策略：经济下行压力显现，美债拐点已至 2 n 基本面与货币政策：7月新增非农7.3万人，低于预期的10.4万人；前两月数据显著下修，5月和6月数据 共下修25.8万人，导致私人部门新增就业连续3个月低于10万人/月；失业率上行至4.25%；二季度 GDP环比3%，但主要由净出口回升贡献，其中私人消费支出环比走弱至1%下方；反应美国经济的下行 压力逐渐显现；货币政策方面，在记者会中，鲍威尔对就业市场关注度明显提升；尽管鲍威尔对9月是否 降息没有给出 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 8 月美债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 美 债 策 略 月 报 7 月经济数据再显下行压力，非农超预期但结构明显走弱，二季度略超预期但 内需分项明显回落；通胀数据较上月回升但斜率较温和，市场对经济预期仍是 "软着陆"情形。全月来看，美股再次创下历史新高，美债收益率高位回落。 展望下半年，由于汇率对冲成本后的美债收益率不及欧日本国公债，这将降低 美债对海外投资者的吸引力，并导致一级交易商美债敞口仍将高位震荡。随着 美债市场去杠杆结束+"去美元化"进程暂时告一段落，美国经济的下行压力 也在逐渐显现，美债利率或已迎来拐点，10Y 美债利率年内低点或将突破 4 月 3.8%的新低，达到 3.6%。标的方面，我们继续推荐以下品种：TLT，TMF，10 年期及以上美债期货（CME 期货代码为 TY，US 和 UL；CBOT 代码为 ZN2509）。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 2025 年 8 月港股市场展望及配置策略 港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境内外部分化，政策面后续或仅"托而不举"， 情绪面短期预计仍偏观望。鉴于市场中长期趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走 势，我们不建议过度悲观。我们对于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。 板块配置方面，我们看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽车、新消费、创 新药、科技等；业绩股价稳健且受益于政策利好的低估值国央企红利板块；基 本面独立且受益于降息周期的香港本地银行、电信及公用事业红利股。此外， 配置上尽可能回避对美业务敞口较大的行业板块及上市公司。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 8 月港股市场月度展望及配置策略 ──港股策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 港 股 策 略 月 报 整体来看，港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境内外部分化，政策面后续或仅 "托而不举"，情绪面短期预计仍偏观望。鉴于当下港股市场中长期趋势已进 入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，我们仍不建议过度悲观。 我们对于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观 ...

港股通数据统计周报 2025.7.28-2025.8.3 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.7.28-2025.8.3） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1211.HK | 比亚迪股份 | 可选消费 | 122586413 | 142.45 | | 2 | 2800.HK | 盈富基金 | | 274875500 | 68.66 | | 3 | 0939.HK | 建设银行 | 金融 | 382808815 | 30.20 | | 4 | 2628.HK | 中国人寿 | 金融 | 10906 ...

Group 1: Weekly Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 900 million HKD, a decrease from 1.06 billion HKD the previous week[11] - A total of 34 companies conducted buybacks this week, down from 43 companies last week[11] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 740.86 million HKD, followed by China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) with 29.95 million HKD[11] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Buybacks - The financial sector accounted for the majority of buyback amounts, primarily driven by HSBC's significant repurchase[14] - The information technology sector had the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 7 firms participating[14] - The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors followed, each with 6 companies conducting buybacks[14] Group 3: Individual Company Buyback Data - Australia New Oriental Education (1752.HK) had the highest buyback ratio at 12.19% of its total shares[15] - IGG (0799.HK) and Xinyi International (0732.HK) had buyback ratios of 0.21% and 0.22%, respectively[15] - The buyback amounts for other notable companies included 1.73 million HKD for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) and 1.37 million HKD for Vitasoy International (0345.HK)[15] Group 4: Significance of Buybacks - Buybacks are defined as companies repurchasing their own shares from the market, often signaling that the stock is undervalued[22] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, indicating companies' confidence in their stock's intrinsic value[22] - Historical data shows that the Hong Kong market has experienced five buyback waves since 2008, all coinciding with subsequent market recoveries[22]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Life (2628.HK) with a net buy amount of 40.30 billion CNY, acquiring 177,142,212 shares[8] - The second highest net buy is China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 25.53 billion CNY, acquiring 307,628,796 shares[8] - The top net sell company is China Mobile (0941.HK) with a net sell amount of -29.03 billion CNY, selling 33,535,578 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector shows significant net buying activity, led by China Life and China Construction Bank, indicating strong investor confidence in financial stocks[8][9] - The technology sector, represented by Kuaishou (1024.HK) and SMIC (0981.HK), also sees substantial net buying, with Kuaishou netting 19.03 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the telecommunications sector, particularly China Mobile, experienced notable net selling, reflecting potential investor concerns in this area[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - The most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is the盈富基金 (2800.HK) with a total trading volume of 49.37 billion CNY and a net buy of 49.02 billion CNY[18] - SMIC (0981.HK) is also among the top active stocks with a trading volume of 40.80 billion CNY but a net sell of -6.84 billion CNY, indicating volatility[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) shows significant trading activity with a total volume of 22.47 billion CNY and a net buy of 2.48 billion CNY, suggesting ongoing interest[18]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.45%, 2.27%, and 2.51% respectively [3][10] - Most primary industry sectors saw gains, with only the telecommunications sector experiencing a slight decline [10][13] - The industrial and materials sectors had the highest weekly gains, both around 8%, while energy, industrial, information technology, and real estate sectors also saw increases exceeding 4% [10][13] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index is at 79%, which is above the 5-year average [3] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was 900 million HKD, a decrease from 1.06 billion HKD the previous week [25] - The number of companies engaging in buybacks this week was 34, down from 43 the previous week [25][28] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 740 million HKD, followed by China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) with 30 million HKD [24][25] Southbound Fund Flow - Southbound funds saw a net inflow exceeding 30 billion HKD this week, with total inflows for the year surpassing the total for the previous year [42] - The top net bought companies included China Life (2628.HK) with a net purchase of 4.03 billion HKD and China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with 2.55 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net sold companies included China Mobile (0941.HK) with a net sale of 2.90 billion HKD and the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with 2.30 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong market is highly synchronized with the economic conditions in mainland China, as over 80% of profits come from Chinese companies [37][38] - Recent economic data shows improvements in industrial profits, but sustainability remains in question, particularly when excluding the automotive sector [42] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on the funding environment [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first half of the year, and it is not difficult to achieve the annual target of 5%. The market's expectation of strong policies is rising, and the improvement of risk appetite may cause the bond market pricing to remain entangled. Given the limited space for adding duration, the market needs time to wait for incremental funds to digest the existing supply. During this process, the decline in capital interest rates may reopen the interest rate spread space, and continuing to explore coupon assets may be the best strategy [5]. - In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than expected, and the economy in the first half achieved an unexpected growth rate of 5.3%. The economic data in June continued the characteristic of "strong supply and weak demand" since the first quarter. The exchange rate pressure is relatively controllable in the short term, and the loose monetary policy will continue to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance in the second half of the year [68]. - In July, there are few foreseeable negative factors. The fundamental data is still mixed, and the indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance Review - **Interest Rate Bond Market**: The curve became slightly steeper, and long - term interest rates showed a V - shaped trend during the week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds decreased by 0.2 and 0.3 bps to 1.67% and 1.88% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.8 bps to 1.34%. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year interest rate bonds decreased by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively, the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds were flat compared with the previous week, and the yield of 30 - year bonds increased slightly by 1bp. The yield curve of policy - bank bonds also changed little, with only the 1 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year yields decreasing by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp [11][14]. - **Credit Bond Market**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + implicit urban investment bonds decreased by 2bp, 3bp, and 1bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds decreased by about 2bp [14]. 3.2 Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - **Local Bonds**: This week, 251.2 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 163.4 billion yuan, including 27.6 billion yuan of new general bonds, 161.4 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 98.4 billion yuan of special special bonds), 62.1 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - **Treasury Bonds**: This week, 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 58.2 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [19]. - **Policy - Bank Bonds**: This week, 162 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds were issued, with a net issuance of - 65.4 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Capital Market Situation - **Funding Tightening and Central Bank Intervention**: Affected by the tax period, the capital market tightened rapidly. The central bank increased the investment to ease the market. On the first day of the tax period (July 15), the overnight interest rate jumped about 10bp. R001 and DR001 quickly rose above 1.50%, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% respectively; R007 and DR007 also rose to 1.59% and 1.57% respectively, with increases of 5bp and 3bp. With the support of the central bank's large - scale capital investment, the capital market gradually stabilized, and the overnight interest rate returned below 1.5% [25]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The weekly average values of R001 and R007 increased by 13bp and 3bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and one - week Shibor interest rates closed at 1.46% and 1.49%, changing by + 15.3bp and + 4bp respectively compared with the previous week; the overnight and one - week CNH Hibor interest rates closed at 1.42% and 1.62%, changing by - 20bp and + 0.4bp respectively compared with the previous week [5][25]. - **Certificate of Deposit Yields**: After the end of the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields decreased. The yields of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 2bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively to 1.54%, 1.58%, and 1.62%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 8.3 months, compared with 8.9 months in the previous week. Under the background of the gradual tightening of the capital market during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.21 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.24 trillion yuan [28]. 3.4 China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - **Economic Fundamentals** - **Foreign Trade**: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, remaining stable compared with the 6% increase from January to May. The trade surplus in June was 114.77 billion US dollars, remaining at a high level. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America increased by 16.8%, 9.4%, 34.8%, and - 2.1% respectively year - on - year; exports to the US decreased by 16.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous value. The export growth rate of labor - intensive products continued to be low, while products such as general machinery and ships with relative competitive advantages had a relatively fast export growth rate [33][36]. - **Social Financing**: In June, the monthly new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The end - of - month growth rate was 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%). Entity credit, government bond financing, and foreign currency loans improved significantly year - on - year [37]. - **Entity Credit**: In June, entity credit increased by 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year. The improvement of enterprise short - term loans was obvious. In the first half of the year, household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, and enterprise loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [43]. - **Money Supply**: In June, M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year (previous value: 2.3%), and M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [46]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In June, the industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, reaching a new high in the past three months. The growth rate of emerging industries was faster than that of traditional industries [47]. - **Social Consumption**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.8%, significantly lower than the previous value. Most optional consumption items declined, but automobile retail improved [51]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, lower than the previous value. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, large - scale infrastructure, and real estate all declined to varying degrees [58]. - **Real Estate**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, and completion were - 20%, - 9.1%, and - 14.8% respectively. The new construction and construction growth rates both declined [62]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5%, the same as the previous value [62]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's open market operations this week resulted in a net capital withdrawal of 0.5 trillion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.4 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases and 0.1 trillion yuan from MLF. The outlook for the second half of the year is that the central bank will maintain a loose tone, and liquidity is likely to remain loose [5][65]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term, and external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term [65][68]. 3.5 China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - **Fundamental Outlook**: The economy in the first half of the year had a good start, but the data indicating domestic demand such as nominal GDP, CPI, and household loans were still weak. New policy clues or signals are crucial for the short - term macro - environment [68]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The effective demand in the economy is insufficient, and the loose monetary policy will continue [67]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In July, there are few negative factors. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67].