2025年度快递行业策略报告：景气延续，行则将至

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for express delivery in 2024 is expected to exceed expectations, leading to a continuous recovery in profitability for companies in the sector [3]. - The overall consumption remains stable, with online shopping continuing to grow, contributing to a projected retail sales total of 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3][19]. - The express delivery industry is anticipated to achieve a total volume of 1,750.8 billion pieces in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [19][26]. Summary by Sections Demand and Profitability - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly for franchise companies, as demand in 2024 is expected to be robust [3][16]. - The direct express delivery company SF Express continues to implement cost reduction and efficiency enhancement strategies, showing significant profit recovery [3][16]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditures for direct express delivery are on a downward trend, while the capital expenditure situation among franchise companies shows divergence [3][31]. - In 2024, SF Express's capital expenditure is projected to increase by 12.0% in Q1, but decrease by 29.0% and 41.1% in Q2 and Q3, respectively [3][31]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the competitive landscape remains stable, with the market concentration ratio (CR8) holding steady at around 85.2% [39]. - The pricing strategies among major players in the express delivery sector are expected to remain restrained, with the industry average selling price (ASP) continuing to decline due to the impact of "small package" trends [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players such as SF Express, with additional attention on Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Yunda Express, and Debon Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from macroeconomic policy shifts [3][82]. - The express delivery sector is identified as having significant potential for bottom-fishing investment opportunities, particularly in light of current low valuations for leading companies [3][82].