钢铁行业周报：宏观预期定价上行驱动，需求修复博弈弹性

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic expectations are driving price increases, and seasonal demand is expected to gradually open up [2] - The steel price is currently stabilizing, with limited downside potential due to healthy supply-demand dynamics, particularly in a low inventory and low production environment [3] - Recent government policies, including the issuance of guidelines for greenhouse gas emissions in the steel industry, are expected to stimulate market enthusiasm [4] - The steel sector is anticipated to experience upward momentum due to improved profitability and macroeconomic policy expectations [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The steel sector saw a slight increase of 0.33%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.64 percentage points [12] Fundamental Tracking - National steel prices are generally strong, with a slight decrease in iron ore inventory [10] - The average price of rebar in Beijing is 3,318 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +23 CNY/ton [11] - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 104.5 thousand tons week-on-week, reaching 168.6 thousand tons [6] Industry Dynamics - The high furnace operating rate is at 77.68%, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3 percentage points [6] - The total output of five major steel products increased by 21.4 thousand tons week-on-week, totaling 8.36 million tons [6] - The profitability of hot-rolled sheets improved, with a gross profit of 75 CNY/ton, up by 15 CNY [6] Key Industry News - South Korea proposed temporary anti-dumping duties on thick plates imported from China, ranging from 27.91% to 38.02% [36] - In January 2025, member companies of the China Iron and Steel Association reported a 0.29% year-on-year decrease in total energy consumption [36]