白银行业深度Ⅱ：全球白银需求已进入结构性扩张阶段

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically the silver sector, indicating a structural expansion phase in global silver demand [2]. Core Insights - Global silver demand is entering a structurally expanding phase, driven primarily by industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [4][7]. - The supply-demand balance for silver is expected to remain tight, with a projected supply gap widening from 6003 tons in 2024 to 7248 tons by 2027 [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Silver - The global silver supply is projected to grow from 31,915 tons in 2024 to 33,039 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 1.2% [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the resilience and elasticity of global silver consumption, predicting a continued tight supply-demand state [4][15]. 2. Industrial Silver - Main Driver of Demand Growth - Industrial silver demand is expected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total silver demand [5][16]. - From 2019 to 2024, global silver demand is projected to grow from 31,241 tons to 37,918 tons, with industrial silver demand contributing 87.3% of this increase [5][17]. - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to drive silver demand significantly, with consumption expected to reach 7,217 tons in 2024 [6][22]. 3. Photography Sector - The photography sector is experiencing a structural decline, with demand expected to decrease from 812 tons in 2024 to 780 tons by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of -1.2% [32][33]. 4. Silver Jewelry and Silverware Demand - India dominates the global silver jewelry and silverware market, accounting for approximately 47% of total demand [34][36]. - Despite fluctuations, the demand for silver jewelry in India is expected to rise by 5% in 2024, while silverware demand is projected to increase by 8% [36][38]. 5. Supply-Demand Gap - The report forecasts that the silver supply-demand gap will widen from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027, indicating a persistent tight market [8][30].