春耕推动氯化钾价格上涨，全球供应趋紧有望推升钾肥景气度

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Recent rapid increase in domestic potassium chloride prices, with a 10.05% rise compared to the previous week and a 24.05% increase since the beginning of 2025, driven by tight domestic supply and increased demand for spring farming preparations [8]. - The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts a record high global fertilizer consumption in 2025, with potassium fertilizer consumption expected to reach 41 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous peak in 2020 [8]. - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic potassium fertilizer companies and those involved in overseas potassium resource extraction and production, such as Salt Lake Co., Yara International, and others [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The domestic potassium chloride price reached 3121 RMB/ton as of February 24, 2025, with supply constraints and low inventory levels contributing to the price surge [8]. - The Russian Uralkali company announced maintenance shutdowns for three mines, which will reduce potassium fertilizer output by at least 300,000 tons in the second quarter of 2025 [8]. Demand Drivers - The upcoming spring farming season is expected to boost potassium fertilizer demand as compound fertilizer manufacturers prepare for raw material storage [8]. - The report highlights that the affordability of potassium and nitrogen fertilizers has improved, making them more attractive compared to other fertilizers [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring leading potassium fertilizer companies and those with international operations, as the tightening global supply and rising prices are likely to support demand [8].