SMIC(688981) 兴业证券·2025-02-25 07:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as the leading domestic wafer foundry, benefiting from the AI wave and the reshaping of its scarce advanced processes [2][4] - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of approximately 27% in 2024, with a strong recovery in demand from consumer electronics and smartphones [3][30] - The company is projected to have a revenue growth rate that outpaces the industry average in 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 6-8% expected in Q1 2025 [3][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the most advanced and largest wafer foundry in mainland China, with a total capacity of approximately 421,000 wafers per month (equivalent to 12-inch) by the end of 2024 [4][20] - The company has multiple production bases in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, and is currently expanding its production lines [4][20] Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 45.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.6%. However, revenue is expected to grow to 57.80 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 27.7% increase [3][30] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.687 billion yuan in 2024, down 23.5% from the previous year, but is expected to recover to 4.937 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 33.9% [3][30] Market Dynamics - The AI wave is expected to significantly increase the demand for high-performance computing, with the Chinese smart computing scale projected to reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% from 2023 to 2028 [18][20] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the return of domestic advanced manufacturing capabilities due to increased export controls from the U.S. on semiconductor technologies [20][21] Growth Prospects - The company anticipates a strong recovery in demand across various sectors, including consumer electronics, smartphones, and automotive applications, driven by government subsidies and AI innovations [30][31] - The revenue from the consumer electronics segment is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 195.84 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 92.11% [30][31]