工业：光伏供给侧有望出清，行业拐点可期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current photovoltaic supply chain is experiencing significant overcapacity, and merely relying on demand growth is insufficient for absorption. The key lies in supply-side clearing. The government is emphasizing the orderly development of the new energy industry, with actions already taken by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) to promote this [3][4] - Potential paths for clearing include market mechanisms such as price and technology adjustments, implementing stricter standards for technology and energy consumption to eliminate outdated capacity, and setting production quotas or capacity utilization rates for companies. Under different clearing paths, leading companies will continue to benefit from their scale, technology, and cost advantages. If stricter standards accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity, leading companies will benefit even more [3][4] - The industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, and if policies promote capacity clearing, leading companies will have significant profit and valuation elasticity. Recommended stocks include leading companies in silicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and components [3] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Capacity - As of the end of January 2025, global capacities for silicon materials, wafers, battery cells, and modules are 1,448 GW (equivalent to 311.3 million tons), 1,154 GW, 1,089 GW, and 1,325 GW respectively. The operating rates for January 2025 are 40%, 47%, 50%, and 37% respectively. The CPIA predicts an additional global photovoltaic installation of 430 GW to 470 GW in 2024. The significant overcapacity in the photovoltaic supply chain necessitates supply-side clearing to achieve supply-demand balance [3][4] Government Policies - The government is focused on the healthy and orderly development of the new energy industry. In July 2024, the 20th Central Committee proposed to improve the system for promoting high-quality economic development, including policies for strategic industries like new energy. In November 2024, the MIIT released new standards for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, raising capital and technical standards to guide companies away from low-level repetitive expansion [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies will maintain advantages under various supply-side clearing paths. If the market relies on price competition and technological iteration, the process of clearing overcapacity may take longer, with leading companies facing continued pressure on performance. However, if stricter standards are implemented, leading companies with superior technology and energy consumption metrics will see improved market share and profitability [3][4]