关税2.0：为什么难以阻挡A股走牛？

Group 1: Background of Tariff 2.0 - Tariff 2.0 is characterized by a shift in focus from a single target (China) to multiple targets, including traditional allies like Mexico and Canada[3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has seen a decline in its global share, with China's manufacturing value added reaching $4.7 trillion in 2023, compared to the U.S.'s $2.5 trillion in 2021[5] - The U.S. aims to become a manufacturing superpower under the Republican Party's 2024 platform, with Tariff 2.0 as a key policy[4] Group 2: Objectives of Tariff 2.0 - The primary short-term goal of Tariff 2.0 is to maximize tariff revenue, rather than immediately promoting manufacturing return or reducing trade deficits[9] - U.S. tariff revenue increased significantly from $38.5 billion in 2017 to over $100 billion in 2022, marking a growth of over 160%[17] - Despite the increase in tariffs, the U.S. trade deficit expanded from approximately $800 billion in 2017 to $1.2 trillion by 2024[12] Group 3: Impact on A-shares and Exports - Tariff 2.0 is expected to have a different impact on Chinese exports compared to Tariff 1.0, with a potential for resilience in exports despite a projected slowdown[29] - Investor confidence in internal improvements is likely to outweigh concerns about external risks, making it difficult for Tariff 2.0 to hinder the bullish trend of A-shares[29] - The A-share market experienced a downward trend during Tariff 1.0 but is expected to perform better under Tariff 2.0 due to strategic shifts and technological advancements in China[29] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include sudden geopolitical tensions and shifts in domestic policy focus[31] - The U.S. may face challenges in maintaining its alliance system if it continues to impose tariffs on traditional allies, which could lead to a breakdown of these relationships[28]