Economic Cycle and Policy Effect Tracking: Confidence and Trend Outlook - The current economic cycle in China is the fifth since 1978, with consumption growth outpacing GDP growth during the upward phases of previous cycles, indicating a stable internal demand driving economic recovery [8][12] - In 2025, consumption is expected to continue contributing positively to economic recovery, with a projected retail sales growth of approximately 4.7% in Q1 [50] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to see an upgrade in 2025, with a forecasted growth rate of around 7.8% in Q1, driven by new policies and emerging industries [25][50] Policy Resonance during the "Two Sessions": Fiscal and Monetary Rhythm Shift - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to work in tandem in 2025, with an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio projected to boost GDP growth by approximately 1%-1.9% [4] - The introduction of new special bonds is expected to rise to about 4.3 trillion yuan, with a higher proportion allocated for project capital [4] - Structural and innovative monetary policies are anticipated to play a more significant role in counter-cyclical adjustments in 2025 [4] Investment Focus: Industrial Model Adjustment and Ecological Restructuring under the Technology Boom - The focus of investment in 2025 will be on technology, green industries, and consumption, with significant opportunities in AI applications across various sectors such as biomedicine and education [4][5] - The establishment of government investment funds targeting key industries like artificial intelligence and integrated circuits indicates a strategic shift towards innovation-driven growth [4] - Mergers and acquisitions among state-owned enterprises are expected to accelerate, particularly in technology, energy, agriculture, finance, and logistics sectors [4] Overseas: Continuation of Weak Global Economic Recovery and Policy Game Dynamics - The global economy has shown signs of weak recovery, with persistent inflation in the US and Europe potentially slowing down interest rate cuts [4] - The fluctuation in commodity markets, particularly oil prices, reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, which may impact China's external trade dynamics [4] Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China is projected to decline by approximately 10.73% in Q1 2025, although recent increases in land transaction prices and volumes may mitigate this decline [34][36] - The land premium rate has shown a significant increase, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the sector [34][39] - The overall real estate market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on promoting housing market recovery through various policy measures [36][39]
经济效能提升与要素创新配置下的投资抉择：风禾尽起，逐光而行
西南证券·2025-02-25 09:21