零售社服行业周报：提振消费政策积极，关注边际改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the retail and social services sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to lead to a sustained recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the context of the growing elderly population and the introduction of new travel services [4][25]. - The integration of AI in the consumer sector is anticipated to create new growth opportunities, particularly in areas such as smart retail and human resource services [4][25]. - Traditional retail is undergoing transformation to adapt to online competition, with a focus on enhancing customer experience and emotional value, suggesting a potential stabilization in offline sales [4][25]. - The report emphasizes the significant market potential for overseas expansion of retail companies, driven by the rise of domestic brands and supportive policies [4][26]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - From February 10 to February 21, 2025, the retail index increased by 2.79%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.59 percentage points, ranking 12th among primary industries [7]. - The social services index rose by 3.66%, exceeding the CSI 300 index by 1.45 percentage points, ranking 10th among primary industries [7]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated a plan to enhance service consumption by introducing new travel services for the elderly, which is expected to positively impact service supply [10]. - The service trade in China reached a record high, with total imports and exports surpassing $1 trillion in 2024, indicating robust growth in the tourism sector [11]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Focus Technology, Kidswant, Core International, Miaow Exhibition, and Doctor Glasses are highlighted as companies to watch, with varying earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 [5][29]. - Yonghui Supermarket and Small Commodity City are also noted for their potential in adapting to market changes and expanding their global presence [5][29]. Industry Data Updates - In January 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year, with food prices increasing by 0.4% and service prices by 1.1% [19]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2024 reached 451.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [19].