钢铁行业周报：库存累速收敛，表需复苏加快

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates that inventory accumulation is slowing down while demand recovery is accelerating in the steel industry [1] - The report highlights that the construction site resumption rate is increasing, which is expected to support steel prices in the short term [5][54] - The report suggests that the industry is likely to maintain stability supported by the real estate sector and manufacturing [6] Supply Summary - As of February 21, 2025, the total output of five major steel products reached 8.36 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.63% and a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [4][14] - The average daily pig iron production of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2751 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21% but a year-on-year increase of 1.79% [4][14] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 85.41%, down 0.19 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.82 percentage points year-on-year [4][14] Demand Summary - The total consumption of five major steel products was 7.9437 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 19.77% and a year-on-year increase of 35.43% [20][22] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 99,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 40.41% [20][22] - The monthly export volume of steel products reached 9.727 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.24% [20][22] Inventory Summary - As of February 21, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 13.1395 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.91% [29][30] - The total factory inventory was 5.5019 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.50% [29][30] Cost Summary - As of February 21, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 821 RMB/wet ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.26% [43][46] - The comprehensive price index for scrap steel was 2,554.59 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.29% [43][46] - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1,347.9 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.20% [44][46] Price Summary - As of February 21, 2025, the Mysteel ordinary steel absolute price index was 3,625.46 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.29% [47][48] - The Mysteel special steel absolute price index was 9,486.08 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week change of -0.02% [47][48] - The global steel price index was 197.8 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.66% [47][48] Key Companies and Profit Forecast - Baosteel (600019.SH) is rated as "Increase" with an EPS forecast of 0.48 RMB for 2025 [6] - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) are not rated but have EPS forecasts of 0.43 RMB and 0.53 RMB for 2025 respectively [6] - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318.SZ) and Wujin Stainless Steel (603878.SH) are also not rated but have EPS forecasts of 1.75 RMB and 0.60 RMB for 2025 respectively [6]