东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250225

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver demand has entered a structural expansion phase, with industrial silver demand being the main driver, expected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total demand [2][7] - The total global silver demand is projected to grow from 37,918 tons in 2024 to 40,287 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 2%, driven primarily by industrial applications, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicle sectors [2][8] - The supply of silver is expected to grow at a low rate, from 31,915 tons in 2024 to 33,039 tons by 2027, resulting in a widening supply-demand gap, which is projected to increase from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027 [8][9] Group 2: Industrial Demand Drivers - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to see an increase in silver consumption, with projected usage reaching 7,560 tons in 2025, 7,934 tons in 2026, and 8,156 tons in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 4.8% to 2.8% [3][7] - The new energy vehicle industry is also expected to contribute significantly to silver demand, with projected consumption of 2,566 tons in 2025, increasing to 2,926 tons by 2027, showing a growth rate of 4.5% to 12.5% [7][8] Group 3: Market Trends - The silver market is experiencing a continuous expansion, with industrial silver consumption being the core driver, while photography demand is expected to decline, particularly in East Asian developing countries [7][8] - The demand for silver jewelry and silverware is expected to remain stable, with India continuing to dominate the market [7][8] - The overall silver supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight, with the supply gap widening, indicating a potential for price increases in the future [8][9]