TRIP.COM(TCOM) 招银国际·2025-02-26 01:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price adjusted to 71.00, reflecting a 20.4x PE for 2025E [1][4][12]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported total revenue of RMB 12.8 billion for Q4 2024, a 23% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4%. The non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 2.8 billion, benefiting from optimized operating expenses [1]. - For 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 20% to RMB 53.4 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit projected to increase by 23% and 38% respectively [1]. - The report indicates that while incremental investments may pressure short-term profits, they are expected to support long-term growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Trip.com achieved a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 21.6%, slightly above expectations, with operating expenses at 57.6% of total revenue, better than the anticipated 59.0% [3]. - The company’s revenue for FY 2024 is projected at RMB 53.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 19.8% [9]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for Q1 2025 is estimated at RMB 13.8 billion, aligning with consensus expectations, driven by a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings [2]. - The report anticipates a 60% year-over-year growth in Trip.com’s outbound tourism revenue for 2025, supported by incremental investments [2]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted target price of 57.30 [4]. - The report projects a non-GAAP net profit margin of 28.6% for 2025, down from previous estimates due to adjustments in outbound tourism revenue forecasts [12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline of 11% has already priced in concerns regarding potential profit margin compression due to increased investments for international expansion [1]. - The analysts express optimism about Trip.com’s ability to deliver positive financial results in upcoming quarters, driven by enhanced operational efficiency [1].