国君食饮|周期寻底,份额优先

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the liquor industry is gradually entering a data validation phase, emphasizing the importance of certainty in investment decisions [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently in a cyclical bottoming phase, with increasing divergence in supply and demand, and an ongoing inventory cycle. The industry is expected to experience a profit bottom, inventory bottom, and performance bottom, with Q2 2025 being a critical pressure testing point. The differentiation among companies is likely to intensify, and stocks with strong short-term sales performance may yield significant excess returns [1]. - The main theme for liquor stocks in 2025 revolves around market share logic. The performance of individual stocks will be influenced by the industry's cyclical downturn and the reshaping of growth logic. The industry is shifting from a phase of simultaneous volume and price increases to one where volume increases while prices decline, leading to a focus on market share acquisition. Key factors for gaining market share include strong branding and production capacity, a diverse product line, especially in the mid-price range, and efficient organizational and channel structures [1]. - In the short term, the sector is expected to benefit from optimistic expectations regarding stabilization in the real estate chain and consumer spending, which may lead to a temporary valuation uplift. Strong fundamental companies are likely to lead the market, with potential spillover effects to high-elasticity stocks. However, the industry still needs to navigate through the inventory cycle, and companies that can continuously increase market share are expected to maintain excess returns [2]. Summary by Sections - Current Industry Phase: The liquor industry is in a cyclical bottoming phase, with a focus on certainty and data validation [1]. - Market Share Dynamics: The performance of liquor stocks will be driven by market share acquisition amidst a declining price environment, requiring strong brands, diverse product lines, and efficient operations [1]. - Short to Mid-term Outlook: The sector may see short-term benefits from positive economic expectations, but must still address inventory cycles for sustained growth [2].