宏观周报：国内两会预期发酵

Group 1: Domestic Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is characterized by a data vacuum, making it difficult to capture fundamentals, with upcoming policy expectations from the Two Sessions gaining traction[1] - The proposed fiscal measures include a 4% deficit rate and issuance of CNY 1.3 trillion in special bonds, with CNY 500 billion allocated for new infrastructure and CNY 800 billion for dual-use projects[1] - A total of CNY 4.4 trillion in special bonds and a CNY 4 trillion real estate storage plan over five years are also anticipated, which aligns with market expectations, leading to a generally positive market sentiment[1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - New home sales are showing seasonal recovery, significantly deviating from the 2022 trend, indicating stabilization in the new housing market[8] - The listing price index for second-hand homes is experiencing a downward trend, with first-tier cities maintaining relatively high levels while second and third-tier cities show signs of bottoming out[8] - Continued observation is required for the new home sales in the spring and the potential stabilization of the second-hand home market[8] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market remains under pressure due to a tight funding environment, with the central bank's net injections still in negative territory[2] - The yield on ten-year government bonds has surpassed 1.7%, influenced by ongoing discussions around policy measures as the Two Sessions approach[2] - Short-term interest rates are becoming more attractive, while the configuration of long-term rates is gradually improving[2] Group 4: U.S. Dollar and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar continues to decline, influenced by weaker-than-expected economic data, including a significantly lower services PMI and rising unemployment claims[22] - The spread between U.S. and European interest rates is narrowing, driven by the relative weakness of the U.S. economy compared to Europe[22] - The dollar index is currently around 106.6, with expectations for further declines in the coming week[22]