食品饮料：中央1号文件提出要对奶牛产业纾困

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The central government's document emphasizes the need to alleviate difficulties in the dairy industry and stabilize basic production capacity, which is expected to improve the overall situation of excess raw milk in the dairy industry this year [1][2] - The price of raw milk peaked in August 2021 and has since decreased by 29%, leading to losses for upstream dairy farming enterprises. The decline in milk prices is attributed to an increase in raw milk supply outpacing consumption growth [1][2] - The compound annual growth rate of milk production in China from 2019 to 2023 is 7%, while the revenue growth rate of dairy products has turned negative from 2021 to 2023, with respective rates of 7.9%, -6.5%, and -2.4% [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The central government's focus on the dairy farming industry's challenges and the call to stabilize production capacity is expected to lead to a further reduction in the number of dairy cows this year, alleviating the pressure on both upstream and downstream sectors of the dairy supply chain [2][10] Market Performance - In the past week, the dairy sector saw a price increase of 1.64%, while other food sectors also experienced positive growth [12] - Key companies in the dairy sector showed varied performance, with top performers including Zhuangyuan Pasture (11.85%) and China Shengmu (10.86%) [16] Regulatory Changes - The government has modified the national standard for sterilized milk, which will no longer allow the use of reconstituted milk, marking a significant shift in the domestic sterilized milk market [11][2] - The implementation of these standards is expected to enhance the quality of domestic sterilized milk products [11] Future Outlook - If the demand for dairy products can recover alongside macroeconomic improvements, the profitability of dairy companies is likely to increase [2][11]