有色金属：刚果（金）钴出口暂停，全球钴价中枢或将上移

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly improve the global cobalt supply-demand balance, potentially leading to an upward adjustment in cobalt prices [3] - As of February 24, 2025, the global cobalt price has dropped to $9.95 per pound, a decrease of 75.20% from the 2022 peak, indicating that cobalt prices are currently at historical lows [3] - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for approximately 76% of the total cobalt production, with an estimated output of 220,000 tons in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Market Price - The domestic cobalt market price as of February 24, 2025, is 160,600 yuan per ton, down 72.08% from the 2022 peak, marking a five-year low [3] Supply and Demand Situation - In 2024, global cobalt production is projected to be around 290,000 tons, with the DRC contributing 220,000 tons [3] - The suspension of cobalt exports for four months is expected to impact the global cobalt supply by approximately 73,300 tons, alleviating the current oversupply situation if downstream demand remains stable [3] Event Analysis - The DRC's export suspension is anticipated to lead to a rebound in cobalt prices, benefiting companies with cobalt production capabilities in Indonesia and other regions [3] - The DRC government plans to reassess the export suspension after three months, which may lead to a gradual lifting of restrictions, indicating that long-term supply pressures may still exist [3] Investment Highlights - The report suggests that the recent export suspension will likely result in a short-term increase in global cobalt prices, with a focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt that have nickel production capacity in Indonesia [3]