高盛：中国思考：是时候启用 A 计划了-买入A股吗？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for both China A and H shares, indicating a positive outlook for both markets [39][39][39] Core Insights - The launch of DeepSeek-R1 has led to increased investor optimism regarding Chinese growth and equity performance, with MSCI China rallying 26% since January, while A shares gained 7% [1][7][39] - The return gap between A and H shares has expanded to 15%, which is historically significant and suggests a potential market leadership rotation [8][16][27] - The A-H market rotation model predicts a 2% outperformance for A shares in the next three months, driven by less stretched valuations and potential macroeconomic policy stimulus [3][17][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - MSCI China has outperformed A shares significantly, with HSTECH rising 31% and STAR50 Index increasing by 13% since the launch of DeepSeek-R1 [1][7][39] - The report notes that the historical average return gap typically remains within +/-10%, and exceeding 15% has a high probability of reversal [8][16][27] Valuation and Economic Factors - Current trading valuations are 11.5x for MSCI China and 13.1x for CSI300, with the A-H valuation premium narrowing from 34% to 14% [19][25][27] - The upcoming "Two Sessions" are expected to reiterate an expansionary fiscal policy stance, which could favor A shares due to their higher sensitivity to domestic policy announcements [19][39] Sector and Index Preferences - Small/mid-cap A-share indices such as STAR50, ChiNext, and CSI1000 are expected to outperform due to their higher exposure to AI-related sectors [39][40] - Among large-cap indices, CSIA500 is preferred for its greater exposure to technology and innovative sectors, while HSTECH is anticipated to continue performing well due to upward earnings revisions driven by AI adoption [39][40]