高盛：微软：资本支出配置的调整，再次坚定了我们对微软在人工智能领域采取审慎投资策略的信心。

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) with a 12-month price target of $500, representing a potential upside of 22.5$408.21 [1][22]. Core Insights - Microsoft is positioned to capitalize on long-term trends such as Gen-AI, public cloud consumption, SaaS adoption, and digital transformation, which are expected to drive sustainable EPS growth [17][20]. - The company is adjusting its capital expenditures (CapEx) towards shorter-lived assets, indicating a prudent investment strategy in AI capacity with a focus on returns [1][17]. - Microsoft’s cloud business is projected to reach nearly $250 billion by FY27, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22$245.1 billion in FY24 to $361.2 billion in FY27, with EBITDA increasing from$131.7 billion to $201.6 billion over the same period [2][11]. - EPS is expected to rise from$11.80 in FY25 to $18.30 in FY27, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][11]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in AI revenue, projected to scale to a$13 billion run rate, representing a year-over-year growth of 175% [1][17]. Market Positioning - Microsoft is trading at a discount compared to Oracle, with a 30x CY25 EV/FCF ratio versus Oracle's 49x, indicating potential value for investors [1][22]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with approximately $300 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) and a net debt/EBITDA ratio of (0.3), showcasing financial strength [1][2][11]. - The report emphasizes Microsoft's efficient capital allocation strategy, which includes successful acquisitions and share repurchases, contributing to a compelling total return story [17][20].