高盛：卫星领域-腾飞之势 —— 星链对全球电信及卫星服务的影响

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Eutelsat to Sell due to competitive pressures, execution risks, and rising debt burdens, while AT&T, BT, Cellnex, DT, Elisa, T-Mobile US, and Verizon are rated as Buy due to their strong market positions and satellite partnerships [37][48][50]. Core Insights - The number of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites is projected to increase from approximately 7,000 today to around 30,000 by 2030 and 78,000 by 2035, assuming most new satellite companies meet their launch targets [4][12][51]. - Satellite services are viewed as more of an opportunity than a threat to telecom operators, with the potential for augmented satellite-wireless services to enhance revenue for terrestrial telecom providers [5][31]. - Capacity constraints will limit the competitive threat from satellite broadband, with estimates suggesting that only about 8% of the US population could be served competitively by satellite broadband by 2035 [19][80]. Summary by Sections Satellite Launch Projections - If new satellite companies achieve their targets, LEO satellites could increase significantly, with projections of 30,000 by 2030 and 78,000 by 2035 [4][12][51]. - There are concerns regarding the feasibility of these targets due to regulatory, economic, and sustainability issues [15]. Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the risk to telecom operators from satellite communication services is limited due to capacity constraints and regulatory concerns [11][18]. - Existing wireless and broadband services are expected to outperform pure satellite services in most scenarios, particularly in urban areas [26]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights that satellite services could provide significant benefits in rural areas and for specific applications such as military and emergency services [26][31]. - Partnerships between terrestrial telecom providers and satellite operators are increasing, suggesting a trend towards complementary service offerings rather than direct competition [31][36]. Eutelsat's Position - Eutelsat is seen as vulnerable due to competitive pressures and execution risks, leading to a downgrade in its rating [37][48]. - The company faces challenges from new entrants like Starlink and Amazon's Project Kuiper, which are expected to disrupt the existing satellite market [37].