高盛：铝 —— 中国铝供应增长的终结将推动铝价突破每吨 3000 美元

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for aluminium prices, forecasting a rise to $3,100/t by Q4 2026, which is 14% above current forwards [3][47][68]. Core Viewpoints - China's aluminium production is expected to peak in 2026, necessitating higher prices to stimulate new supply from other regions, particularly Indonesia and India, to avoid significant deficits in 2027-2028 [3][8][47]. - The analysis is based on three main pillars: low inventories, solid green demand, and the peak of Chinese supply [9][10][16]. Summary by Sections Low Inventories - As of the end of 2024, reported inventories were only sufficient to cover 9 days of consumption, a decrease from 20 days in 2019 [10][11]. - Total inventories covered 49 days of demand, which is just above the lows seen in 2006-2007 [10][11]. Solid Green Demand - The report forecasts a 2% average annual growth in aluminium demand through 2028, slightly below the 3% average from 2015-2024 [16][19]. - Demand from electric vehicles (EVs) is projected to increase significantly, with aluminium content in EVs expected to rise from 4.6 million tonnes to over 12 million tonnes by 2030 [19]. - Solar energy has been a major growth driver, contributing 3.3 million tonnes of demand growth from 2019-2024, accounting for 40% of total global demand growth [19][20]. China Supply Peak - China's aluminium production capacity is capped at 45.4 million tonnes per annum, a limit established in 2017 to address overcapacity [27][28]. - The report anticipates that this cap will be reached by early 2026, after which production will not exceed this level [28][32]. - The policy has led to improved profitability for Chinese aluminium smelters, as higher prices benefit the industry without increasing capacity [29][41]. Price Forecast - The forecast indicates that aluminium prices will initially face headwinds due to cost deflation, dropping to$ 2,500/t by June 2025, before rising to $2,650/t by December 2025 [47]. - By late 2026, margins are expected to rise to around 30%, near historical highs, before new investments in India and Indonesia bring the market back into balance [47][50].