高盛：中国经济复苏 —— 追踪各类资产的涨势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on equities and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on credit and commodities/cash [3][20]. Core Insights - Chinese equities have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and European markets in February, driven by a supportive stance from President Xi towards the private sector [2][3]. - Despite the positive performance of Chinese equities, domestic mutual fund and ETF flows have not matched this trend, indicating a cautious sentiment among local investors [2][11]. - The "Two Sessions" event scheduled for March 4th/5th is expected to confirm a supportive expansionary stance for domestic listings, which could further enhance A-share returns [3][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights a major reversal in equity performance, with low volatility and value stocks outperforming carry and momentum strategies [1]. - Asian markets, excluding Japan, and European equities have outperformed US equities, driven by improved sentiment regarding geopolitical issues and fiscal policies [1][2]. Sector Analysis - The technology and consumer discretionary sectors have shown strong performance in H-shares compared to A-shares, with notable gains in stocks like Alibaba (+65% YTD) and Xiaomi (+50% YTD) [3][9]. - The report indicates that sectors such as industrials, energy, and utilities have underperformed relative to IT and cyclicals [3][10]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on diversification across assets and regions due to lower expected returns and increased risks [3][20]. - There is a noted tactical risk of equity corrections due to bullish sentiment and elevated valuations, prompting a focus on hedges [3][20].