24Q4银行业监管指标数据点评：盈利表现分化，风险指标向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is entering a period of intensive stable growth policies, with monetary easing followed by fiscal measures, significantly impacting the fundamentals of banks in 2025. The central government's fiscal deficit rate has considerable room for improvement, and incremental fiscal policies are expected to support social financing and credit, boosting economic expectations. This environment is likely to benefit cyclical stocks [3]. - The net interest margin for banks is under short-term pressure due to a broad decline in interest rates, but the concentration of high-interest deposits entering a repricing cycle, along with regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation, will provide important support for bank margins in 2025 [3]. - 2025 is anticipated to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with policy support expected to significantly improve risk expectations in real estate and urban investment assets. Certain personal loan categories that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal may also see a turning point in asset quality [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly state-owned banks like Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) [3]. 2. Cyclical stocks and quality city commercial banks, recommending attention to China Merchants Bank (600036), Ningbo Bank (002142), Shanghai Bank (601229), Nanjing Bank (601009), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [3]. 3. Stocks with improving risk expectations, suggesting focus on Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) and Ping An Bank (000001) due to anticipated improvements in asset quality for consumer loans and credit cards [3]. Financial Performance - As of Q4 2024, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial banks' net profit decreased by 2.3%, with significant performance divergence among different types of banks. State-owned and joint-stock banks showed improvements, while city commercial and rural commercial banks experienced declines [6]. - The total assets and liabilities of commercial banks grew at a rate of 7.2% and 7.3%, respectively, with state-owned banks showing a slowdown in expansion [6]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.52% for the entire year of 2024, with slight declines observed in city commercial banks and joint-stock banks, while rural commercial banks showed improvement [6]. - The asset quality indicators improved, with non-performing loans decreasing by 97.7 billion yuan and the non-performing loan ratio dropping to 1.50% [6]. Risk Weighted Assets and Capital Adequacy - The growth rate of risk-weighted assets for commercial banks continued to decline, with capital adequacy ratios showing improvement across various bank categories [6].