1月宏观环境观察：中国资产“开门红”的宏观背景

Global Macro Environment - The global manufacturing PMI index reached 50.1 in January, marking a 7-month high, indicating a return to expansion in manufacturing[6] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index was 50.9%, showing a continuous recovery for three months[9] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, indicating reduced space for future cuts due to strong employment and inflation data[15] Domestic Macro Environment - In January, China's new social financing scale increased by 7 trillion yuan, with new medium- and long-term loans to enterprises reaching 3.46 trillion yuan, reflecting enhanced investment willingness[16] - The manufacturing PMI's production and operation expectation index rose to a 9-month high, signaling improved business expectations[16] - However, the CPI rose only 0.5% year-on-year in January, indicating slow price recovery, while the PPI fell 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak domestic demand[17] Policy and Economic Outlook - Local governments are actively addressing real estate and debt issues, with Guangdong province planning to repurchase idle land across 15 cities, covering 684.4 million square meters[22] - The central government is focusing on supporting private enterprises and technological innovation, as highlighted in a recent meeting led by President Xi Jinping[24] - The upcoming Two Sessions in March are expected to reinforce fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy[25] Asset Performance - Chinese stock markets (A-shares and H-shares) showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising 16.8% and the ChiNext Index up 12.1%[30] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with gold rising 7.2% and silver 8%, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation expectations[35] - The bond market is relatively weak, with short-term and long-term bond indices down 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, indicating a potential adjustment phase[31]