产业链重塑价值可期，国内流媒体仍是估值洼地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music, and an "Overweight" rating for Spotify [6][7]. Core Insights - The domestic streaming media market is significantly undervalued compared to overseas markets, with potential for valuation improvement as profitability continues to release and shareholder returns are realized [1][12]. - The domestic music market has substantial growth potential, with online music penetration expected to rise from approximately 50% to 70% and subscription payment rates from 23% to potentially double [2][10]. - Domestic streaming platforms have a stronger ability to reshape the industry chain compared to their overseas counterparts, leading to higher long-term profitability ceilings [3][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price of 64.40 HKD and NetEase Cloud Music with a target price of 205.47 HKD, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for Spotify with a target price of 700.06 USD [7]. Market Comparison - The global recorded music market generated revenues of 286 billion USD in 2023, with streaming accounting for 67% and physical sales for 18%. In contrast, the domestic online music penetration is around 50%, indicating significant room for growth [2][18]. - The report highlights that the domestic market's subscription payment rate is only 23%, compared to 47% in Europe and the US, suggesting a doubling potential in the future [2][10]. Profitability and Valuation - The report argues that domestic streaming platforms are significantly undervalued, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music's FY27 PE ratios at 12.6x and 12.3x, respectively, compared to Spotify's 30x [4][11]. - The domestic streaming media platforms are expected to have a higher profitability ceiling due to their deeper involvement in content creation, copyright management, distribution channels, and content identification [3][11]. Industry Structure and Dynamics - The report discusses the restructuring of the value distribution among creators, record companies, and streaming platforms, indicating that domestic platforms have greater flexibility and potential for profit compared to traditional overseas models [3][9]. - The domestic music market is characterized by a more fragmented structure, allowing for greater integration and control by streaming platforms over upstream resources [66][71].