BUD APAC(01876) 交银国际证券·2025-02-27 02:31Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.78, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 7.84 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The overall performance is led by strong results in the South Korean and Indian markets, with an increase in dividend payout ratio reflecting future operational confidence [2][6]. - For 2024, Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 6.246 billion, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year, with normalized EBITDA at USD 1.807 billion, down 10.7% [6][16]. - The company faced challenges in the China market, with a significant drop in sales and revenue due to increased competition and changing consumer behavior [6][16]. - The Indian market showed robust growth, particularly in the premium segment, achieving nearly 20% growth in high-end products and doubling market share over the past five years [6][16]. - The South Korean market performed exceptionally well, with high single-digit sales growth leading to double-digit revenue growth, driven by product mix optimization and market share expansion [6][16]. - The report maintains a positive long-term growth outlook for Budweiser APAC, particularly as consumer spending recovers in China, supported by strong performance in South Korea [6][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC show a recovery trend, with expected revenues of USD 6.563 billion in 2025, growing to USD 7.181 billion by 2027 [5][16]. - Net profit is projected to rebound to USD 837 million in 2025, with a further increase to USD 1.067 billion by 2027 [5][16]. - The company’s dividend yield is expected to remain attractive, with a payout ratio increasing to 96% in 2024, up from 82% in 2023 [6][16]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of distribution cities to 235, enhancing market reach and operational efficiency [6][8].