中金-传媒互联网：海外互联网平台4Q24回顾及展望：聚焦AI应用

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for major companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, Uber, and DoorDash, while a "Neutral" rating is assigned to eBay [3]. Core Insights - The overall US stock market exhibited a volatile trend in 4Q24, with high valuations and a generally flat fundamental outlook. The divergence in AI expectations is a key underlying factor. Most companies met or slightly exceeded expectations, but guidance for 1Q25 from some companies fell short of expectations. Major tech firms continue to invest heavily in AI, with significant capital expenditures indicating a strong commitment to AI development [4][5]. - The report highlights that the advertising market grew by 14.5% YoY in 4Q24, while cloud computing revenue from leading providers increased by 25.2% to $64.6 billion, although this was below market expectations. E-commerce in the US saw a 4.4% increase in retail sales, with European retail recovering and inflation easing [6][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The US stock market entered a high volatility phase in 4Q24, influenced by policy uncertainties and high valuation levels. The internet sector's revenue growth is expected to face challenges due to a high growth base and macroeconomic complexities [14][20]. Company Performance - Meta and Amazon were standout performers in terms of profit, with Meta benefiting from a one-time adjustment in management expenses and Amazon seeing strong performance in North American retail and advertising [26][30]. - The report notes that the capital expenditures of major internet companies have entered a "worry phase," where increased spending may lead to profit pressures amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions [5][14]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Major companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI, with Meta projecting$ 60-65 billion for 2025 (up 66-80% YoY) and Google estimating $75 billion (up 43% YoY). Amazon is expected to have annualized capital expenditures around$ 100 billion [5][30]. Earnings Forecasts - The report indicates that there have not been significant upward adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook for revenue growth amid high bases and potential profit pressures from capital expenditure depreciation [28][30].