中金-专题研究：债券利率何时再度向下突破？——中金债券市场调查2025年2月期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Chinese bond market, suggesting it may experience a range-bound market with limited upside and downside potential [68]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has shifted towards caution in the Chinese bond market, influenced by recent stock market strength and a tight funding environment, leading to a decrease in duration and leverage preferences [1][9]. - A significant majority of investors (90%) believe that interest rates will trend downwards again within the year [1]. - The report emphasizes that the current market adjustments are likely temporary and not indicative of a long-term trend, with fundamental support for the bond market remaining intact [1][68]. Summary by Sections Domestic Economic and Policy Outlook - Investors have a neutral view on the intensity of future stimulus policies, with most expecting no significant surprises [2]. - There is a cautious outlook on new home sales in 2025, with the majority anticipating sales to remain flat or decline [2]. - Investors are divided on the impact of technological advancements on the economy, with many seeing a mixed effect due to the weakness in traditional sectors [2][43]. Overseas Economic Conditions - Nearly half of the investors believe that the U.S. economy in 2025 will not differ significantly from 2024, with a notable portion expressing uncertainty [3][22]. - There is a prevailing concern regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit, with many investors expecting it to exceed $2 trillion [3][25]. - The report notes a significant divergence in opinions regarding U.S. inflation, with 27% of investors perceiving increasing inflationary pressures [3][12]. Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Investors are showing a preference for relative value strategies, with an increased inclination towards cautious trading and a decrease in leverage [9]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the preference for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising risk aversion [9]. - The majority of investors expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to decline to the range of 4%-4.5% by the end of 2025 [6][33]. Credit Market Insights - There is a rising expectation for credit spreads to widen, particularly for shorter-duration bonds, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [7]. - Investors are increasingly cautious about long-term credit bonds, with a significant portion opting for shorter-duration investments [8]. Asset Allocation and Future Outlook - The report indicates a cautious stance among investors regarding the bond market, with a significant portion expecting it to remain range-bound [68]. - The anticipated increase in government bonds for 2025 is projected to be between 1-3 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [51]. - Investors are divided on the future trajectory of the Chinese CPI, with expectations ranging from stability to a mild increase [55].