教育行业：探讨多邻国的估值——我国教育AI资产能否迎来估值切换和价值重估？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report discusses the valuation of Duolingo and the potential for valuation switching and value reassessment in China's education AI sector. It highlights that the current PS (Price to Sales) ratio for Duolingo is approximately 26x and PE (Price to Earnings) exceeds 200x, indicating a mismatch with traditional consumer asset valuation methods [3][32] - The report suggests that as AI products mature and become integral to core business operations, there is potential for a shift in valuation methods towards user value, particularly for AI assets in education [3][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on AI+education related stocks, specifically mentioning DouShen Education and FenBi for their potential in valuation switching and value reassessment [3][33] Summary by Sections Valuation Methods - The report analyzes Duolingo's valuation methods, indicating a significant growth in revenue with a CAGR of 66% from 2019 to 2023. The projected revenue for 2024 is estimated to be between $844 million and $847 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.6% to 36.1% [5][6] - The PE ratio for Duolingo is projected to exceed 200x based on its net profit estimates for 2024, which is expected to be between $96.3 million and $96.7 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 500% to 502% [7][8] User Value Valuation - Duolingo's MAUs (Monthly Active Users) have shown consistent growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% starting in 2023, reaching 113 million by the end of Q3 2024. The potential user base for language learning globally is estimated at around 2 billion, indicating significant growth potential [9][13] - The current maximum potential value of Duolingo's users is estimated at $19 billion, closely aligning with its market capitalization of $19.4 billion as of February 18, 2025 [13] DouShen Education - DouShen Education is projected to achieve a net profit of between 119 million and 154 million RMB in 2024, marking its first profit in five years. The corresponding PE ratio is estimated to be between 114x and 147x [14][15] - The user data for DouShen AI is still developing, and it has not yet introduced paid features, limiting the ability to use user value for valuation at this stage [14] FenBi - FenBi is expected to generate revenue of at least 2.77 billion RMB in 2024, with a projected PS ratio not exceeding 2x and a PE ratio not exceeding 16x [19][20] - The current maximum potential value of FenBi's users is estimated at 8.45 billion RMB, based on its MAUs of 9.2 million and various pricing models for its services [30][31]