AI+能源系列：电力篇：AI能否带动电力提前跨越周期底部？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power generation sector and power equipment sector [5]. Core Insights - The integration of AI in energy is expected to lead to a significant increase in electricity demand, with a projected CAGR of 25% for data centers from 2025 to 2030, potentially raising overall electricity growth from 4.5% to 5.3% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][12]. - The report anticipates that coal power utilization hours may reach a bottom in 2028, driven by increased demand from AI-related investments [3][12]. - The supply-demand balance in the electricity sector is shifting from tightness in 2022 to a more relaxed state, with potential oversupply during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][34]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand Forecast - The report predicts that the electricity demand growth for the secondary industry will decline from 5.2% in 2024 to 2% by 2030, while residential electricity demand is expected to grow at 9.6% from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of 7.5% when excluding charging and swapping [2][14][26]. - The overall electricity demand growth is projected to be 4.7% from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of 5.2% from 2025 to 2027 [11][34]. Supply Side Analysis - The report estimates that the installed capacity growth for coal and hydropower will be 3.7% from 2025 to 2030, while nuclear power will see a CAGR of 13% [11][34]. - The report highlights that the construction of coal power plants is expected to peak between 2025 and 2027, with a significant increase in capacity [35][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Sheneng Co., Huaneng International, and China Nuclear Power, among others, indicating a positive outlook for these firms based on projected demand and pricing trends [8].