高途（GOTU）：集团（US）：聚焦高质量增长，重视股东回报

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][15]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of 1.39 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 82.5%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of 1.308 billion RMB [1][2]. - Cash collections reached 2.16 billion RMB, up 69% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations [2]. - The company is focusing on balancing growth and profitability, with expectations of significant narrowing of losses in 2025 due to improved offline store utilization and cost optimization [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2024 K12 business showed better-than-expected performance, with a return on investment (ROI) of 2.93 compared to 2.74 in Q3 2023 [2]. - Deferred revenue balance reached 2.086 billion RMB, a 68.5% increase year-over-year, with guidance for Q1 2025 revenue growth of 48.7% to 50.8% [2]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 68.3%, better than the expected 66.3%, driven by scale effects and effective cost control [3]. - The report anticipates a focus on efficiency improvements and loss reduction in 2025, with expectations of narrowing losses significantly [3][12]. AI Integration - The company has integrated multiple deep learning models, enhancing the efficiency of educational products and customizing learning paths for students [4]. - The application of AI is expected to not only reduce costs but also improve user lifetime value through efficiency gains [4]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 5.726 billion RMB, 7.244 billion RMB, and 8.589 billion RMB respectively, reflecting slight upward adjustments based on the 2024 revenue base [5][12]. - The report indicates a slight increase in gross margin expectations for 2024, now projected at 68% [12]. Valuation - The target price is set at 4.69 USD, based on a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.5x for 2025, considering short-term profit drag from offline investments [15][16].