Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JOYY Inc. with a target price of $84.20 [6][11]. Core Insights - JOYY's Q3 revenue reached $540 million, slightly exceeding the expected $532 million, with a year-over-year decline of 3.3%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was $72 million, also above the consensus estimate of $70 million [1][6]. - The acceleration in BIGO's advertising revenue is a key driver for the company's performance, with a significant year-over-year growth of 33.1% in Q3 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its advertising algorithms and expanding its client base, which is expected to further enhance advertising revenue growth in the future [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - For 2025-2027, the projected revenues are $2.11 billion, $2.29 billion, and $2.42 billion, respectively, reflecting slight upward adjustments from previous forecasts [5][11]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are $275 million, $277 million, and $303 million, indicating a stable profit margin [5][11]. - The advertising business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver, with expectations of continued expansion in the coming years [11][12]. Segment Performance - The BIGO segment generated $470 million in revenue for Q3, with a notable recovery in advertising revenue, which grew by approximately 50% year-over-year [2][3]. - The live streaming business showed signs of recovery, achieving a 3.5% quarter-over-quarter growth, although it still faced a year-over-year decline of 12% [3][4]. - The "All other" segment reported revenues of $68 million, with a year-over-year increase of 9%, and is expected to narrow its operating loss significantly [4][11]. Valuation - The report adjusts the valuation method to a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, estimating a total market value of $4.5 billion for JOYY, corresponding to a target price of $84.20 per share [11][13]. - The valuation multiples for the BIGO live streaming and advertising businesses are set at 12.4x PE and 3.1x PS, respectively, aligning with comparable companies [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 12.75 [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 19.89 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 12.3%, but a growth of 3.4% year-over-year in Q3 [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was RMB 3.51 billion, down 7.1% year-over-year, with Q3 profit showing a significant increase of 27% year-over-year [1]. - The revenue growth in Q3 is attributed to the narrowing decline in the prescription drug business and the gradual dissipation of the impact from centralized procurement [1][2]. - The company is optimistic about the continued market expansion of new products such as Omaguzumab and Mingfule under the backdrop of ongoing market development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.89 billion for 1-3Q25, with Q3 revenue showing a 3.4% year-over-year increase and a 5.7% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - The net profit for 1-3Q25 was RMB 3.51 billion, with Q3 profit at RMB 960 million, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [1]. Product Pipeline and Business Development - The report highlights the potential of the EGFR ADC pipeline, with ongoing clinical trials both domestically and internationally, indicating strong competitive advantages [3]. - The company confirmed BD revenue of RMB 1.54 billion in 1-3Q25, with expectations for continued BD opportunities in 2026 [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a return to positive growth in prescription drug revenue by 2026, driven by new product launches and the absence of major products in the latest round of centralized procurement [2]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 4.55 billion, RMB 4.63 billion, and RMB 5.03 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 0.40, RMB 0.40, and RMB 0.44 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 21.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 1.4%, primarily driven by strong growth in the apparel category [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.5 billion RMB, up 14.6% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 7.0%, slightly better than the consensus expectation of 6.9% [1] - The company is expected to achieve positive year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2025 and 2026 through differentiated supply and innovative marketing strategies [1][4] Revenue and User Metrics - The total GMV for Q3 2025 was 43.1 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [2] - Product revenue accounted for 19.4 billion RMB (91% of total revenue), growing 2.3% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 1.0% [2] - Active customers reached 40.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with the number of Super VIP (SVIP) users growing at a double-digit rate [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 23.0% year-on-year, below the consensus expectation of 23.5%, attributed to customer incentive measures [3] - Operating expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 18.5%, primarily due to a rise in return rates affecting fulfillment costs [3] - The management aims to achieve scale expansion through differentiated products and is deploying AI agents to enhance user experience and marketing efficiency [3] Future Guidance and Shareholder Returns - The company guides for Q4 2025 revenue growth to be flat to +5%, indicating a potential for positive year-on-year growth following Q3 2025 [4] - As of Q3 2025, the company has returned a total of 730 million USD (approximately 5.2 billion RMB) through dividends and buybacks in 2025, reaffirming that total shareholder returns will not be less than 75% of 2024's non-GAAP net profit [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly adjusts the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025/2026/2027 down by 1.8%/1.3%/1.0% to 8.6 billion RMB/9.1 billion RMB/9.3 billion RMB [5] - The valuation window is shifted to 2026, with a target PE of 9x for 2026 non-GAAP net profit, which is at a discount compared to the comparable company average of 14.3x due to lower revenue growth expectations [5][25] - The new target price is set at 22.69 USD, up from the previous 21.22 USD [5]

Macro Overview - In September, the US added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, and weekly hours remained stable at 34.2 hours, meeting expectations [2] - The strong job growth alleviated concerns about recession or economic slowdown, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Fixed Income - October tax revenues continued to show strong performance, while narrow spending cooled due to high base effects [3] - Land transfer income was weak, and quasi-fiscal projects have not yet formed financial expenditures, leading to a negative year-on-year change in government fund expenditures [3] - The necessity for fiscal stimulus remains, with attention on the pace of budgetary fund expenditures and local fiscal space [3] Utilities and Environmental Protection - The year 2025 marks the second year of the action plan to replace hidden debts, with 4 trillion yuan of the 6 trillion yuan special debt limit issued by the end of August 2025 [4] - Since Q3, the environmental sector has seen better-than-expected national subsidy repayments for waste incineration and biomass power generation [4] - Price adjustments for sewage and waste treatment fees are expected to enhance cost recovery for related companies [4] Transportation - In October, despite being the e-commerce peak season, retail sales growth slowed due to the reduction of "old-for-new" subsidies and high base effects from the previous year [5] - The industry saw a slowdown in package volume growth, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7% in September and 7.9% in October [5] - The "anti-involution" pricing strategy is expected to continue, with moderate growth in package volume and improved profitability for leading companies like Zhongtong Express [5] Key Companies - NetEase reported Q3 revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, with deferred revenue exceeding expectations due to contributions from "Fantasy Westward Journey" [5] - Nvidia's Q3 results showed strong demand for AI-related products, with a significant order visibility and a rebuttal to AI bubble concerns [10] - iQIYI's Q3 revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, but management noted positive impacts from new regulations and improvements in membership services [13] E-commerce and Advertising - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue increased by 13% to 35.6 billion yuan, with a notable improvement in gross margin and adjusted net profit [14] - Youdao's Q3 revenue reached 1.63 billion yuan, growing 3.6% year-on-year, driven by accelerated growth in advertising business [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Lenovo, with a target price adjusted to HKD 14.00 from the previous HKD 16.00, reflecting a 12.5% decrease [5][7]. Core Insights - Lenovo reported a revenue of USD 20.45 billion for 2QFY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 1.7%. The Non-HKFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 512 million, up 25.2% year-over-year, exceeding the company's prior guidance by approximately 19% [1][5]. - The company benefits from a strong position in the global PC market, holding the largest market share and demonstrating robust supply chain management capabilities, which enhances its resilience against industry cycles [1][2]. - The AI-related business has become a core growth driver, with its revenue contribution reaching 30% and a year-over-year increase of 13 percentage points [1][5]. Summary by Sections IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - IDG's revenue increased by 11.8% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 60%. The global PC market share rose by 1.8 percentage points to 25.6%, marking a record high [2]. - Driven by mixed AI demand, PC revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, with AI PC penetration increasing by 16 percentage points to 33% of total shipments [2]. ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG's revenue grew by 23.7% year-over-year, primarily due to strong demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions. The AI server business recorded high double-digit revenue growth [3]. - The Neptune liquid cooling technology saw a revenue increase of 154% year-over-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3]. SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG achieved an 18.3% year-over-year revenue growth, maintaining double-digit growth for 18 consecutive quarters, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [4]. - The project and solution services, along with operational services, accounted for 60% of SSG's total revenue, indicating a stable growth trajectory [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects a slight decrease in Non-HKFRS net profit estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 by 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.7% respectively, with expected profits of USD 1.66 billion, USD 1.85 billion, and USD 2.08 billion [5][10]. - The expected Non-HKFRS EPS for FY26, FY27, and FY28 is projected to be USD 0.12, USD 0.14, and USD 0.15 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.5%, 11.4%, and 12.4% [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5][31] Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 8% year-on-year to 28.4 billion RMB, slightly below consensus expectations by 3% [1][7] - Deferred revenue exceeded expectations by 3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5 billion RMB, primarily driven by "Fantasy Westward Journey" [1][2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 27% year-on-year to 9.5 billion RMB, surpassing consensus expectations by 1% [1][5] - The report anticipates significant improvement in revenue for Q4, driven by the launch of "Fantasy Westward Journey" and other new game releases [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - Q3 gaming and value-added services revenue rose by 12% year-on-year to 23.3 billion RMB, with gaming revenue increasing by 13% [2][12] - The gross margin for gaming and value-added services improved by 0.5 percentage points to 69.3% [2][12] - The report projects game revenue growth of 13% and 8% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][5] Game Performance and Updates - "Fantasy Westward Journey" launched a new play mode that significantly increased player engagement, with peak concurrent players reaching 3.58 million [1][13] - The international version of "Yanyun" performed well, reaching 2 million players on its first day on Steam, and is expected to generate 1-1.5 billion RMB in its first year [3][5] - "Egg Party" saw a notable increase in revenue, with iOS revenue growing by 122% year-on-year in October [2][22] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2027, primarily due to slowing growth in mobile game revenue [5][31] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 39.3 billion RMB, 41.8 billion RMB, and 46.1 billion RMB, respectively [5][31] - The target price for the company is set at 170.12 USD, corresponding to an 18.3x PE ratio for 2026 [5][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance showed revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.2%. The significant growth in profitability is primarily attributed to the rise in express delivery prices under the "anti-involution" policy [1][2] - The report anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy will continue to support the company's performance in the fourth quarter, alongside the traditional peak season for e-commerce, leading to further increases in both delivery volume and revenue per package [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a single-package revenue of 1.22 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.02 yuan. The total express delivery volume reached 9.57 billion packages, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.8% due to seasonal factors and rising prices affecting lower-value packages [2][3] - The single-package cost increased to 0.91 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.09 yuan. The adjusted operating profit per package was 0.25 yuan, down 0.08 yuan year-on-year but stable quarter-on-quarter [3] Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is shifting from a focus on volume growth to high-quality development due to the "anti-involution" policy. The overall growth rate of express delivery volume is expected to slow down, but the company, as a market leader with a 19.4% market share, is less affected by the reduction in low-value package demand [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for the company has been raised, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 adjusted to 89.8 billion yuan, 106.6 billion yuan, and 121.1 billion yuan respectively. However, the valuation multiple has been lowered to 15.2x for 2025E PE, and the target price has been reduced by 10% to 185.9 HKD / 23.9 USD [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $12.46 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.63 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, driven primarily by accelerated growth in the advertising business, particularly benefiting from the gaming industry [1][2]. - The company achieved an operating profit of approximately 28.27 million RMB in Q3, slightly exceeding expectations, and has reported profitability for five consecutive quarters, with a year-to-date operating profit increase of 149.2% [1][2]. - The advertising service revenue reached 740 million RMB in Q3, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 51.1%, significantly surpassing previous expectations [2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The Q3 revenue was primarily driven by advertising services, with the gaming sector being a major contributor, while learning services revenue was 643 million RMB, down 16% year-over-year [2][4]. - The core product, Youdao Lingshi, saw sales growth of over 40% year-over-year, attributed to strong summer performance and improved student exam results [2][4]. - AI subscription service revenue exceeded 100 million RMB, with a year-over-year growth of over 40%, mainly due to upgrades in Youdao Dictionary's AI simultaneous interpretation [2][4]. Strategic Focus - The company is increasing its investment in core business areas to support long-term sustainable growth, particularly in learning services and advertising [3][4]. - Collaborations with Google and TikTok, along with the issuance of gaming licenses, are expected to provide significant customer acquisition opportunities for the advertising business [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates Non-GAAP net profits of 147 million RMB, 318 million RMB, and 417 million RMB for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with adjustments reflecting strategic focus on core business investments [4][11]. - The SOTP valuation method assigns a PE of 16.59x for K12 business and 21.94x for smart hardware business, with an overall target price of $12.46 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5]. Core Insights - The environmental sector is expected to see improvements in financial statements due to ongoing debt reduction actions and increased government subsidy payments [1]. - The water utility sector is experiencing a decrease in accounts receivable turnover days, indicating improved cash flow [2]. - The waste incineration sector has seen unexpected increases in government subsidy payments, leading to a positive cash flow outlook [3]. - The sanitation sector is also witnessing a decline in accounts receivable turnover days, although it faces credit impairment pressures [4]. Summary by Sections Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is benefiting from a cumulative issuance of 4 trillion yuan in special bonds aimed at debt reduction, with significant government subsidy payments received by various companies [1]. - Recommended high-dividend stocks include Huanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental, Junxin Co., Green Power, and China Everbright Environment [1][8]. Water Utility Sector - The accounts receivable turnover days for the water utility sector have been decreasing since 2025, with a notable drop to 39 days in Q3 2025, down 45 days year-on-year [2]. - Cash flow indicators have improved across most quarters, with Q3 2025 showing a net cash ratio of 1.7 and operating cash flow to revenue ratio of 0.25, both increasing year-on-year [2]. Waste Incineration Sector - The accounts receivable turnover days for waste incineration have turned negative for the first time since 2023, indicating a decrease in receivables due to better-than-expected government subsidy payments [3]. - Cash flow metrics have also improved, with net cash ratios increasing in Q2 and Q3 2025 [3]. Sanitation Sector - The sanitation sector has seen a reduction in accounts receivable turnover days to 26 days in Q3 2025, down 12 days year-on-year [4]. - While cash flow has improved in Q3 2025, credit impairment remains a concern, particularly in the fourth quarter [4].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Outlook - The fixed income market in 2025 is characterized by three main features: significant positive feedback between performance and scale, institutions prioritizing "controlling drawdowns" over low volatility, and equity being the primary source of returns [4] - For 2026, the overall environment for stocks and bonds is expected to remain friendly, with "fixed income+" products continuing to be a core growth direction for public funds, with anticipated returns ranging from 2% to 5.5% [4] - Investors are advised to focus on equities over duration, reduce sharpness in stock market allocations, and explore refined risk control and AI-assisted tools [4] Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the 2026 long-term contracts for thermal coal, which are expected to be more market-oriented compared to the 2025 version, stabilizing the performance rate [3] - The report recommends leading companies in thermal coal, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as coal prices are expected to stabilize after a decline [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - iQIYI reported a total revenue of 6.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, slightly better than consensus expectations [5] - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue increased by 13% to 35.6 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, with a gross margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points [7] - Q3 2025 results for Qifu Technology showed a revenue of 5.21 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit due to increased loan risks [8] - XPeng Motors achieved a revenue of 20.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 102% [9] - Geely Auto reported a Q3 revenue of 89.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27% [10] - Pinduoduo's total revenue for Q3 2025 was 108.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% [11] - Baidu Group's total revenue in Q3 2025 was 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, but better than expected due to strong growth in AI cloud revenue [12] - Xiaomi's Q3 2025 revenue grew by 22% to 113.1 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit increasing by 80.9% [13] - Weibo's Q3 revenue decreased by 4.8% to 442 million USD, meeting expectations, with a forecast for improved advertising revenue in 2026 due to upcoming events [14] - BOSS Zhipin reported Q3 revenue of 2.163 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [15] - Leap Motor's Q3 revenue was 19.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 97.3% [16] - China Hongqiao plans to issue up to 400 million shares to optimize its capital structure, maintaining a buy rating due to strong aluminum price expectations [17]