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麦格米特:看好AI电源业务逐步兑现业绩增量-20260214
HTSC· 2026-02-14 07:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI power supply products, leveraging its product, technology, and channel advantages to secure orders and enhance performance [1][2] - The recent completion of a private placement, raising 2.63 billion RMB, is anticipated to support the company's long-term development and competitiveness in the AI power supply market [2] - Despite a significant decline in net profit for 2025, the company is projected to recover starting in 2026, driven by scale effects and the delivery of AI power supply orders [2][5] Company Overview - The company is deeply embedded in the power supply iteration cycle of NVIDIA, continuously matching the power supply product development needs for new generation chips like GB300 and Rubin [4] - The company has established a strong technical advantage and quality customer resources, enhancing its competitive edge and collaboration with upstream and downstream clients [4] - The company is recognized as a designated provider of data center components for NVIDIA, indicating its strategic position within the NVIDIA ecosystem [17] Industry Insights - The demand for AI power supplies is expected to accelerate in the first half of 2026, driven by the continuous iteration of AI chips [3] - The global AI server power supply market, particularly for NVIDIA GPU chips, is projected to reach 47.4 to 63.5 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 87% [15][16] - Major North American cloud providers are expected to significantly increase their capital expenditures, which will directly boost demand for upstream power supply components [13] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit for 2025 is revised down to 141 million RMB, while projections for 2026 and 2027 are increased to 1.1 billion RMB and 1.84 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61.65% from 2025 to 2027 [5][19] - The target price for the company is raised to 151.38 RMB, based on an 80x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026, reflecting its competitive advantages in the AI power supply sector [5][21]
国有天然铀平台再启海外矿山并购
HTSC· 2026-02-14 07:25
证券研究报告 工业/基础材料 2 月 12 日,中国铀业和 Bannerman Energy(下称 BMN)发布公告,中国 铀业将通过子公司中核海外以不超过 3.22 亿美元对价增资方式收购 BMN 旗下子公司 BMN UK 45%股权(对应 Etango 铀矿 42.75%间接股权),并 获得 Etango 矿山全生命周期 60%的包销权。此次收购是自 2024 年 12 月 中国国家核铀资源开发公司和中国广核集团旗下中国铀业发展公司分别收 购 Uranium One 拥有的哈原工矿山 Zarechnoye 49.979%和 Khorasan-U 30%股份后,中国铀矿企业时隔一年有余再度出手收购矿山。我们强调海外 矿山收购可遇不可求,三方面因素作用下,供给侧的脆弱性已成为各国共识: 1)停产矿山复产接近尾声;2)在产矿山逐步进入生命周期末期;3)勘探 停滞导致新建矿山项目青黄不接。我们重申今年全球天然铀有望从去库切向 补库、供给侧瓶颈保持刚性深化供需偏紧的板块推荐逻辑。 中国铀业外延并购再下一城,为我国天然铀自主供应保驾护航 BMN 预计 Etango 项目收购有望于 2026 年年中达成,目前仍处于早期 ...
华虹半导体:提价与扩产驱动成长步入快车道-20260214
HTSC· 2026-02-14 05:45
证券研究报告 港股通 2026 年 2 月 13 日│中国香港 半导体 华虹半导体 4Q25 销售收入达 6.599 亿美元,同比增长 22.4%,环比增长 3.9%,达到此前公司指引(6.5-6.6 亿美元)的上沿。本季度毛利率为 13.0%, 同比上升 1.6pct,符合此前指引的 12%-14%。公司指引 1Q26 销售收入维 持在 6.5 亿至 6.6 亿美元之间,指引毛利率区间为 13%-15%。展望 2026 年,我们认为:1)价格端,受益于 AI 拉动的模拟及电源管理需求旺盛,看 好公司凭借特色工艺溢价能力延续提价趋势,带动 ASP 回升;2)规模端, 无锡九厂(Fab 9)产能爬坡叠加华力五厂(Fab 5)的潜在并入,或将增厚 公司产能基数与利润。给予港股目标价 121 港币(前值:120 港币),维持 买入评级。 AI 拉动模拟及电源管理需求旺盛,看好 ASP 回升 模拟与电源管理平台成为公司核心增长引擎,4Q25 相关收入达 1.738 亿美 元,同比大幅增长 40.7%,主要受益于 AI 相关产品对电源管理芯片的强劲 需求拉动。作为全球领先的特色工艺纯晶圆代工厂,华虹在 BCD、功率器 ...
小马智行-W:港股上市打开全球化新篇章-20260214
HTSC· 2026-02-14 05:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 195 [5][9]. Core Insights - The company has achieved a significant milestone by realizing single-vehicle unit economics (UE) in Guangzhou, marking a turning point for the commercialization of Robotaxi services. The average daily revenue per vehicle is approximately HKD 299, indicating the feasibility of the business model [5][15]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving, leveraging a robust technology foundation that includes multi-sensor fusion, world models, and automotive-grade hardware. This technological edge enhances its competitive advantage in the L4 autonomous driving sector [5][16]. - The company has established a diversified ecosystem for collaboration, which supports its global expansion capabilities. It has partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and technology providers, facilitating the development and commercialization of its Robotaxi and Robotruck services [5][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 75.03 million in 2024 to USD 327.18 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 183.12% from 2026 to 2027 [4][11]. - The company is expected to achieve single-vehicle breakeven by 2026 and overall company breakeven by 2029, driven by operational efficiencies and scaling of its fleet [6][14]. - The report anticipates that the company's Robotaxi fleet will expand to approximately 100,000 vehicles by 2030, with a potential market penetration rate of 14-17% in first-tier cities [6][14]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates a clear business model that includes autonomous driving services, technology licensing, and application services. It is the only company in China to have received regulatory approval for full-scene autonomous driving services in major cities [25][31]. - The company has successfully established a presence in eight countries, with a fleet of 1,159 Robotaxi vehicles and over 170 Robotruck vehicles as of the end of 2025 [5][14][26]. - The report highlights that the company’s competitive advantages stem from its clear commercialization path, strong technical capabilities, and a well-structured ecosystem that supports its growth [5][14][19].
香港交易所:4Q25:预计ADT回落或致利润环比下滑24%-20260214
HTSC· 2026-02-14 05:45
证券研究报告 香港交易所 (388 HK) 4Q25:预计 ADT 回落或致利润环比 下滑 24% 2026 年 2 月 13 日│中国香港 其他多元金融 香港交易所(港交所)即将公布 4Q25 业绩:我们预计公司 4Q25 总收入为 64.56 亿港币(同比/环比:+1/-17%),归母净利润 37 亿港币(同比/环比: -2/-24%)。交易活跃度降低是导致公司收入和利润环比下降的核心因素, 4Q25 港股日均成交额(ADT)为 2,298 亿港币(环比/同比:-20/+23%), 我们估计 4Q25 交易类收入为 42.13 亿港币,环比下降 16%。投资端可能 同样面临压力,4Q25 公司优化了证券及衍生品结算所下的保证金返利计算 方式,结合当季度的利率环境,我们估计公司保证金的投资收益率可能收窄, 预计 4Q25 的净投资收益可能环比下滑 32%至 6.97 亿港币。展望未来,在 人民币升值、联储降息、南下资金参与度波动提升和 IPO 市场持续强劲的 多重因素支撑下,我们认为港股流动性仍有望维持在较高水平,并利好港交 所的业绩和估值,维持"买入"。 交易:ADT 环比走弱拖累交易类收入 预计 4Q2 ...
麦格米特(002851):看好AI电源业务逐步兑现业绩增量
HTSC· 2026-02-14 05:32
证券研究报告 麦格米特 (002851 CH) 近日公司完成定增,募集 26.3 亿元,于 2 月 4 日公告上市、2 月 8 日公告 发布简式权益变动报告书,我们认为此次定增有望为公司抢占 AI 电源市场 份额、提升全球竞争力提供有力支撑。此外,1 月 28 日公司发布 25 年业绩 预告,25 年实现归母净利润 1.2~1.5 亿元,同比-72.48%~-65.61%;扣非 归母净利润 0.2~0.3 亿元,同比-94.54%~-91.81%。同比下滑明显,主要系 1)家电等行业价格战影响毛利率;2)海外基地、杭州基地的建设提升管理 费用,面向 AI 电源等领域的新技术与产品布局提升研发费用;3)汇率波动 导致公司汇兑损失提升。虽然短期业绩承压,但我们看好自 26 年起规模效 应带动传统业务利润修复,同时 AI 电源订单批量化交付持续贡献业绩增量。 看好 AI 电源业务逐步兑现业绩增量 行业:AI 电源跟随芯片持续迭代,26H1 需求或提速 AI 芯片的迭代会不断对电源提出新需求,英伟达于 1 月 CES 中发布 Rubin 芯片,与之配套的电源产品研发与测试也在持续推进中;3 月其或于 GTC 大会中更 ...
联想集团:混合式AI驱动业绩增长,供应链韧性应对存储周期-20260214
HTSC· 2026-02-13 10:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.00, corresponding to a 12.0x FY27E PE ratio [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 22.2 billion for 3QFY26, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 7% [1]. - Non-HKFRS net profit reached USD 589 million, up 36% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of USD 463 million by 27% [1]. - The growth was driven by a 32% contribution from AI-related business, which saw a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2 percentage points [1]. - The company is expected to leverage its scale and supply chain management to mitigate the impact of rising component prices, particularly in the storage segment [2]. Summary by Sections IDG (Intelligent Device Group) - IDG revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to USD 15.76 billion, with an operating profit margin of 7.3% [2]. - The global PC market share reached 25.3%, a historical high, with a year-over-year increase of 1.0 percentage point [2]. - AI PC penetration exceeded 30% and continues to rise, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2]. ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG revenue grew by 31% year-over-year to USD 5.18 billion, driven by demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions [3]. - AI server business experienced high double-digit growth, with a project pipeline of USD 15.5 billion [3]. - Neptune liquid cooling technology revenue surged by 300% year-over-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3]. SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG revenue rose by 18% year-over-year to USD 2.65 billion, maintaining double-digit growth for the 19th consecutive quarter [4]. - The operating profit margin exceeded 22%, the highest among the company's business units [4]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its FY26/27/28 Non-HKFRS net profit estimates upward by 8.5%/8.8%/7.0% to USD 1.80 billion, USD 2.03 billion, and USD 2.24 billion, respectively [5]. - Corresponding Non-HKFRS EPS estimates are USD 0.13, USD 0.15, and USD 0.17 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 [5].
宁德时代:全球电气化的“心脏”
HTSC· 2026-02-13 10:20
全球电气化的"心脏" 证券研究报告 宁德时代 (3750 HK) 港股通 2026 年 2 月 13 日│中国香港 新能源及动力系统 我们和市场的不同: 我们认为宁德时代战略定位始终是一家能源科技公司,而不仅仅是市场归类 的电池制造业: 首次覆盖港股给予买入评级和目标价 639.79 港币。 一以贯之地强化科技属性 我们认为宁德时代在重大战略和周期判断上表现出卓越的纠偏和择时能力, 强化自身和产品的科技属性: 商用业务为基,打开未来能源综合体成长空间 宁德时代产品能力迭代和应用场景开发都围绕能源展开,正在从电芯向整体 解决方案的能源供应商角色转变,而这种能力的构建需要对于电力系统的深 刻认知,以及对于各子系统技术的充分掌握。在更远期的 2030 年代,风光 储一体化绿电直连项目、数据中心 UPS 系统、eVTOL 和机器人电池等新商 业模式和场景有望成为宁德时代收入增长的主要推动力。伴随公司推出天行 电池,聚焦重卡、客车等高负荷应用场景,匹配行业需求快速增长,我们认 为今明两年商用车板块有望成为重要增长点。 储能行业需求向好,支撑宁德时代高增长 我们认为储能需求增速有持续性。储能凭借高可控性、高调节性优势,有 ...
宁德时代(03750):全球电气化的“心脏”
HTSC· 2026-02-13 09:49
证券研究报告 宁德时代 (3750 HK) 港股通 全球电气化的"心脏" 2026 年 2 月 13 日│中国香港 新能源及动力系统 我们和市场的不同: 我们认为宁德时代战略定位始终是一家能源科技公司,而不仅仅是市场归类 的电池制造业: 首次覆盖港股给予买入评级和目标价 639.79 港币。 一以贯之地强化科技属性 我们认为宁德时代在重大战略和周期判断上表现出卓越的纠偏和择时能力, 强化自身和产品的科技属性: 商用业务为基,打开未来能源综合体成长空间 宁德时代产品能力迭代和应用场景开发都围绕能源展开,正在从电芯向整体 解决方案的能源供应商角色转变,而这种能力的构建需要对于电力系统的深 刻认知,以及对于各子系统技术的充分掌握。在更远期的 2030 年代,风光 储一体化绿电直连项目、数据中心 UPS 系统、eVTOL 和机器人电池等新商 业模式和场景有望成为宁德时代收入增长的主要推动力。伴随公司推出天行 电池,聚焦重卡、客车等高负荷应用场景,匹配行业需求快速增长,我们认 为今明两年商用车板块有望成为重要增长点。 储能行业需求向好,支撑宁德时代高增长 我们认为储能需求增速有持续性。储能凭借高可控性、高调节性优势,有 ...
联想集团(00992):混合式AI驱动业绩增长,供应链韧性应对存储周期
HTSC· 2026-02-13 09:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.00, corresponding to a 12.0x FY27E PE ratio [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 22.2 billion for 3QFY26, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 7% [1]. - Non-HKFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached USD 589 million, up 36% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of USD 463 million by 27% [1]. - The growth was driven by a rising demand for hybrid AI solutions, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 32% of total revenue, an increase of 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The company is expected to leverage its scale and supply chain management capabilities to mitigate the impact of rising component prices, particularly in the storage segment [2]. Summary by Sections IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - IDG revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to USD 15.76 billion, with an operating profit margin of 7.3% [2]. - The company's global PC market share reached a historic high of 25.3%, up 1.0 percentage point year-over-year, maintaining a 5 percentage point lead over the second-largest competitor [2]. - AI PC penetration exceeded 30% and continues to rise, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2]. ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG revenue grew by 31% year-over-year to USD 5.18 billion, driven by demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions [3]. - AI server business revenue saw high double-digit year-over-year growth, with a project pipeline of USD 15.5 billion [3]. - The Neptune liquid cooling technology revenue surged by 300% year-over-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3]. SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG revenue rose by 18% year-over-year to USD 2.65 billion, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [4]. - Projects and solutions, along with operational services, accounted for approximately 60% of SSG's total revenue [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects an increase in Non-HKFRS net profit for FY26/27/28 by 8.5%/8.8%/7.0% to USD 1.80 billion, USD 2.03 billion, and USD 2.24 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 25.0%, 12.6%, and 10.4% [5]. - Non-HKFRS EPS is expected to be USD 0.13, USD 0.15, and USD 0.17 for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively [5].