易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：日本国债利率上升只因加息预期吗？ 12 月 1 日，日本央行行长植田和男释放 12 月可能加息的信号，推动日债曲 线上移，日元升值，日股也有所调整。从短期催化剂看，如果日央行 12 月 加息，则日本国债收益率可能上升。但辩证地分析，日本在通胀高企、即将 推出新一轮财政刺激的背景下，如果日央行继续推后加息，通胀和利率"失 锚"的风险更大。目前，鉴于日央行已经大幅滞后于曲线（真实利率转负已 达 4 年）、货币政策公信力大幅下降，短期"追赶"曲线（加息）和继续滞 后曲线（不加息）两种情形下，长期国债利率波动均在所难免，利率易涨难 跌，而利率波动可能殃及汇率和权益资产定价。然而中长期看，日央行尽早 "追赶"曲线、收紧政策，推动日元升值，将更有利于锚定长端利率、抑或 对冲高通胀时财政再度扩张对长端利率带来的上行压力（参见《海外财政可 持续性前景堪忧》，2025/11/4） 风险提示：日本通胀超预期上行，日央行货币政策超预期。 研报发布日期：2025-12-03 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 S ...

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 03 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：11 月预览：物价指标有所改善 概览：11 月物价指标呈温和修复态势，PPI 同比降幅或有望持续收窄，CPI 同比小幅回升。随着企业产能扩张趋于自律，供需格局优化效果逐步显现， 同时反内卷对部分工业品价格企稳形成边际助力。假期等因素消退叠加全球 周期性提振，出口同比或改善。消费与投资整体仍较为平淡，但实际总需求 较表观宏观数据（如投资）更为平稳。消费呈现分化态势，部分受补贴退坡 影响的品类走弱，商务出行、酒店等可选/服务消费需求呈现边际企稳。此 外，社融与信贷投放有望同比略多增，部分体现政策性金融工具的拉动效 果。考虑到去年基数较高，四季度财政支出同比数据可能较上半年有所回 落，也为明年一季度"开门红"预留政策空间。 风险提示：地产需求超预期回落拖累内需，中美贸易摩擦程度超预期 研报发布日期：2025-12-02 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AM ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures the liquidity impact of index adjustments on individual stocks by calculating the ratio of net fund flows to the stock's recent average daily trading volume[12][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The liquidity impact coefficient for a stock is calculated as follows: $$ impact_{i} = \sum_{k=1}^{N} \frac{\Delta weight_{k,i} \times AUM_{k}}{amt\_avg_{i,20}} $$ - \( \Delta weight_{k,i} \): Estimated weight change of stock \( i \) in index \( k \) - \( AUM_{k} \): Total assets under management of passive products tracking index \( k \) as of the end of November - \( amt\_avg_{i,20} \): Average daily trading volume of stock \( i \) over the past 20 trading days as of the end of November[12][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a quantitative framework to estimate short-term liquidity shocks caused by index adjustments, but it is subject to data discrepancies and assumptions, which may lead to deviations from actual results[13] --- Model Backtesting Results Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Positive Impact Coefficients**: - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839 CH): 11.55[15] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical (600750 CH): 11.44[15] - Tower Group (002233 CH): 11.04[15] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical (600566 CH): 10.14[15] - Zhengbang Technology (002157 CH): 9.99[15] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Negative Impact Coefficients**: - Shenzhen Expressway (600548 CH): -24.95[16] - Vanward Electric (002543 CH): -20.90[16] - Aviation Materials (688563 CH): -14.06[16] - Huaxi Biology (688363 CH): -10.81[16] - Ninghu Expressway (600377 CH): -10.54[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Net Fund Flow Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor estimates the net fund inflow or outflow for stocks due to index adjustments, based on changes in index weights and the total AUM of passive products tracking the index[9][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Outflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the stock's actual weight in the index as of the end of November - Inflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the estimated weight of the stock in the index post-adjustment - Weight estimation is based on free-float market capitalization and index-specific weighting rules, such as dividend yield weighting or market capitalization weighting[9][10] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a transparent and systematic approach to estimate fund flows, but it is sensitive to assumptions about future index weights and AUM changes[9][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results Net Fund Flow Factor - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Inflows**: - Victory Precision (300476 CH): 112.61 billion CNY[10] - Dongshan Precision (002384 CH): 99.32 billion CNY[10] - Guangqi Technology (002625 CH): 77.81 billion CNY[10] - Sugon Information (603019 CH): 65.44 billion CNY[10] - Top Group (601689 CH): 53.07 billion CNY[10] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Outflows**: - China Mobile (600941 CH): -40.02 billion CNY[11] - CRRC Corporation (601766 CH): -36.40 billion CNY[11] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600 CH): -34.29 billion CNY[11] - TCL Zhonghuan (002129 CH): -30.07 billion CNY[11] - Huagong Tech (000988 CH): -27.44 billion CNY[11]

证券研究报告 宏观 财政刺激有望推高日本名义增长 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 2025 年 12 月 01 日│中国内地 图说日本月报 图说日本宏观月报 | 2025 年 11 月 第十六期 概览：日本三季度 GDP 季环比折年负增主要受暂时性因素拖累，随着关税 不确定性下降，日本出口企稳，且内需继续改善，四季度经济整体延续修复 态势。劳动力市场仍有韧性，通胀反弹。高市政府推出上任以来的首个财政 刺激方案，日央行转鹰。全月来看，"高市交易"延续，美日利差收窄、但 日元走弱；日本长端国债收益率上行。 1. 实体经济走势：三季度 GDP 走弱，通胀边际升温 暂时性因素导致日本三季度 GDP 负增。日本三季度 GDP 季环比折年增速 由二季度的 2.3%回落至-1.8%，其中，净出口和住房投资是主要拖累，前者 受美国关税政策影响，后者则由于建设标准改变导致住房投资前置；私人消 费则维持韧性。 日本 11 月制造业 PMI 小幅回升，综合 PMI 维持在荣枯线上方。日本 11 月 综合 PMI 回升至 52.0，其中制造业 PMI 从上月的 48.3 小幅回升至 48.8；服 务业 PMI 小幅回升 0.03pp 至 5 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日│中国香港 互联网 天立国际控股公布 FY25 业绩：收入 35.89 亿元，yoy+8.1%；净利润 6.48 亿元，yoy+16.5%，符合业绩预告；调整后归母净利润约 6.34 亿元，不及 我们预期的 7.71 亿元。FY25 公司在"质量优先"战略下加强了生源优化和 对优质师资、餐饮后勤、AI 业务的投入，导致短期财务表现略逊预期。FY26 起公司将加强教育质量和短期财务表现的再平衡，推动利润逐渐重回增长。 公司全年派息总额约 2 亿元，派息率维持在 30%左右，股东回报稳健。当 前估值具备较高性价比，维持"买入"评级。 各板块收入稳健增长，升学成果再创新高 FY25 综合教育服务/产品销售/综合后勤服务/管理及特许经营收入分别同比 增长 7%/8%/2.7%/93.9%。公司升学成绩硕果累累，2025 高考成熟校区本 科率达 90%，一本率达 58%；成长期校区本科率达 32%，一本率达 14%； 国际升学、强基竞赛亦取得亮眼成绩。作为第二曲线的托管业务持续发展， 截至 25 年秋季已签约 23 所学校、40 个学段。 "质量优先"导向下招生及利润略逊预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the communication industry and related companies [9][54]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw an 8.70% increase in the index last week, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, which rose by 1.40% and 3.56% respectively [2][13]. - Domestic computing power is expanding rapidly, with Alibaba's cloud revenue for FY2Q26 reaching 39.824 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus forecast [3][14]. - The DeepSeek open-source model, DeepSeek-Math-V2, has shown significant improvements in mathematical reasoning capabilities, outperforming other models in various benchmarks [19][20]. - Beijing plans to establish a large-scale data center system in the 700-800 km dawn-dusk orbit, aiming to transfer substantial AI computing power to space [19][20]. Summary by Sections Domestic Computing Power - Alibaba's cloud revenue growth is driven by strong customer demand, with orders increasing faster than server deployment [3][14]. - The company may increase its previously announced investment of 380 billion yuan due to high demand [3][14]. - The DeepSeek-Math-V2 model has achieved near 99% accuracy in basic benchmarks, indicating a significant advancement in AI capabilities [19][20]. Space Computing Power - Beijing's initiative to build a data center in space aims to support large-scale AI computing [19][20]. - The project is structured in three phases, focusing on technological breakthroughs and cost reduction from 2025 to 2035 [19][20]. - The initiative is expected to create a new industry chain integrating reusable rockets, computing constellations, and data applications [19][20]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies within the communication sector, including ZTE Corporation, Ruijie Networks, and Alibaba, highlighting their potential in the AI computing chain and core asset value reassessment [4][54][55]. - Specific target prices and investment ratings for these companies are provided, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [54][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 73.20 RMB [5]. Core Insights - The company has signed a sales contract for generator sets worth over 100 million USD with a global AI industry giant, marking a significant breakthrough in the North American high-end power market [1]. - The company's modular and intelligent power generation solutions are expected to drive rapid growth in performance, supported by its fracturing equipment, natural gas equipment, and power generation equipment [1][2]. - The collaboration with Baker Hughes aims to provide efficient, low-carbon, and intelligent power solutions for global clients, including AI data centers and industrial manufacturing [3]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 30.95 billion, 37.49 billion, and 43.59 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.02, 3.66, and 4.26 RMB [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%-27% in power demand from U.S. data centers by 2028, indicating a strong market opportunity [1]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 times for 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential and market position [4].

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 01 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：价格回升较产量明显 11 月制造业 PMI 较 10 月的 49%回升至 49.2%（彭博一致预期 49.2%），较 往年季节性水平偏低；非制造业商务活动指数较 10 月的 50.1%回落至 49.5%（彭博一致预期 50%）。11 月制造业 PMI 供需两端分项指标均边际改 善、价格指标亦有所修复——具体看，PMI 分项中生产、采购量较 10 月的 49.7%/49.0%上升至 50.0%/49.5%；新订单、新出口订单、就业人员 PMI 亦 较 10 月回升 0.4/1.7/0.1 个百分点至 49.2%/47.6%/48.4%。此外，商品价格 指数整体回升，购进价格及出厂价格分别较 10 月上行 1.1/0.7 个百分点至 53.6%/48.2%。行业中，高新技术制造业连续 10 个月位于扩张区间，而装 备 制 造 业 / 消 费 品 行 业 PMI 较 10 月 的 50.2%/50.1% 分别回落至 49.8%/49.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aerospace Intelligence with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 26.00 RMB, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2026 [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve growth driven by "technical barriers + policy dividends," leveraging aerospace technology transformation in oil and gas equipment and automotive smart cockpit sectors, while expanding its large-dosage drug column business for long-term stable growth [1][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aerospace Intelligence, formerly known as Lekai New Materials, underwent a major asset restructuring in 2023, acquiring 100% stakes in Aerospace Energy and Aerospace Molding, thus becoming the core listed platform of the Seventh Academy of Aerospace [2][25]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 58.60 billion RMB and 77.81 billion RMB for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.10% and 32.78%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.23 billion RMB and 7.92 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 61.36% and 87.02% [2][36]. Automotive Parts Business - Aerospace Molding, established in 2000, focuses on automotive interior and exterior parts, smart cockpit components, and lightweight engine parts. The company provided components for 10.95 million vehicles in 2023, accounting for 42% of national passenger car sales. The new energy vehicle segment is expected to constitute 72% of new products in 2024, surpassing industry penetration rates [3][16]. Oil and Gas Equipment Business - Aerospace Energy, founded in 2013, specializes in the research and manufacturing of perforating tools and high-end completion equipment. The company holds over 60% market share in unconventional oil and gas extraction and approximately 35% in conventional extraction. The demand for its products is expected to grow alongside the increase in domestic oil and gas production [4][17]. Market Perspective - The report highlights a discrepancy between market perceptions and the company's long-term growth potential, particularly in the automotive parts sector benefiting from electrification and intelligent transformation, and the oil and gas equipment sector supported by policy initiatives [5][19]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 9.48 billion RMB, 11.02 billion RMB, and 12.76 billion RMB, respectively. The report selects comparable companies with an average PE of 30x for 2026, assigning a target PE of 20x to Aerospace Intelligence [6][46].

证券研究报告 蔚来 (NIO US) Q3 毛利率大幅改善 强爆款周期延续，乐道 L80 与全新 ES7 成核心看点 展望 2026 年，我们看好公司延续强爆款新车周期，重点推荐关注乐道 L80 与全新 ES7：乐道 L80 定位纯电大型大五座 SUV，基于 NT3.0 平台打造， 外观内饰延续 L90 设计并新增黑色套件等细节，动力沿用 L90 的后驱 （340kW）/四驱（340kW+100kW）版本，我们预计定价 23-28 万元并于 26Q2 上市，将与 L90 形成"大三排+大五座"的家庭 SUV 矩阵；全新 ES7 定 位高端大五座旗舰 SUV，车身尺寸接近或超过 5.1 米，参考新 ES8 的"大 空间+全场景"打法，我们预计售价 30-40 万元并于 26Q3 上市，以更低门 槛满足多孩家庭对高端大空间的需求。有望进一步强化公司在纯电 SUV 市 场的覆盖力。我们认为，乐道 L80 的性价比优势与全新 ES7 的高端定位将 形成互补，持续推动蔚来在 2026 年的销量增长与市场份额提升。 2025 年 11 月 28 日│美国 乘用车 公司公布三季度业绩：25Q3 实现收入 218 亿元，同比 ...