证券研究报告 古茗 (1364 HK) 港股通 再论"补贴潮"后古茗的长期成长 2026 年 2 月 06 日│中国香港 餐饮 得益于外卖平台补贴，2025 年现制饮品头部品牌扩张再提速，驱动行业集 中度上行。古茗跨越万店门槛后，未来成长空间应如何展望？我们认为公司 门店规模与单店店效均有提升空间。门店角度，基于公司"洋葱圈"式门店 扩张路径及扎实供应链功底，当前万店仅是新起点，未来优势区域加密、外 圈新区同步拓展皆有空间，远期门店空间有望达 3.5 万家。品类角度，古茗 2025 年以来陆续落地咖啡、糖水、HPP 果汁等新品类、推出 6.0 版本大店， 利好堂食占比提升，拓宽经营时段及客群、复用供应链资源，或带动单店店 效持续上行。展望长期，现饮品类边界正不断拓宽，古茗"新鲜"品牌心智 稳固，门店拓展路径清晰、品类间协同效应有望逐步释放，成长空间及经营 韧性兼具。维持"买入"评级。 中远期门店空间或锚定 3.5 万家 "洋葱圈"式区域渗透扩张路径独特且表现稳健，我们通过自下而上的区域 密度推演与自上而下的供需成长两大视角，测算公司中长期门店空间有望触 达 3.5 万家：1）区域门店密度视角，基于公司在已有优 ...

证券研究报告 固收 详解国债期货套利策略之期现策略 ——利率衍生品回顾与展望 2026 年 2 月 05 日│中国内地 衍生品月报 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 SFC No. BXH064 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 期现套利是国债期货套利策略中最直观和经典的策略，当期货市场与现货市 场在价格上出现差距，利用两个市场的价格差距，低买高卖而获利。正向套 利策略为，做空国债期货+买入现券，并持有现券至交割。反向套利为，做 多国债期货+卖空现券，并持有期货至交割。IRR 是买入现券+卖空期货，并 将该现券用于期货交割获得的理论年化收益率，当 IRR 偏高时，意味着现 券被低估、期货被高估；当 IRR 偏低时，意味着现券被高估、期货被低估。 正向套利的收益率被认为具有近似无风险性质，将其 ...

证券研究报告 谷歌 (GOOGL US) 高 CapEx 投入强化云业务增长动能 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 415.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 夏路路 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 丁骄琬 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040003 dingjiaowan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 股价走势图 资料来源：S&P (25) 1 28 54 80 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 谷歌 标普500 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 415.00 何翩翩 研究员 证券研究报告 谷歌 (GOOGL US) 高 CapEx 投入强化云业务增长动能 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 夏路路 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 丁骄琬 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040003 dingjiaowan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 牟睿捷* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070064 mouruijie@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 4 日) | 333.04 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 4,018,794 | | 6 ...

Group 1: Economic and Industry Trends - The overall industry prosperity index rose for the second consecutive month in January, with significant improvements in upstream resources, midstream materials, consumer staples, and TMT sectors [3] - Price increases, AI advancements, and external demand are driving internal prosperity across various sectors, with expectations of further recovery in consumption and travel chains during the Spring Festival [3] - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and certain chemicals are experiencing a rebound in prosperity, while AI-related applications are seeing differentiated growth [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Strategies - The report discusses the use of futures for enhancing returns in a low-interest-rate environment, focusing on the common strategy of cash-futures arbitrage [4] - Positive yield periods for cash-futures arbitrage were noted in the first half of 2025, particularly for specific contracts, indicating potential for increased portfolio returns [4] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Central banks are reallocating assets towards gold, which is expected to support long-term price increases, with projections suggesting gold prices could rise to $5400-$6800 per ounce by 2026-2028 [8] - The report highlights a shift in gold pricing dynamics, potentially moving from a framework dominated by real interest rates to one influenced by credit risk hedging [8] Group 4: Renewable Energy Sector - Wind and solar companies are facing profitability pressures due to low-priced project deliveries, but a recovery trend is anticipated in 2026 as order prices for wind turbines improve [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the solar sector through enhanced supply chain management and the introduction of high-power products [8] Group 5: Construction Materials - The electronic fabric market is entering a new price upcycle due to supply constraints and recovering demand, with significant price increases reported by leading manufacturers [9] - The report indicates that high-end electronic fabrics are expected to continue experiencing supply shortages, leading to further price hikes [9] Group 6: Coal Market Dynamics - Export restrictions from Indonesia could significantly impact China's coal consumption, potentially driving up spot coal prices [10] Group 7: Macro Economic Analysis - The report analyzes the potential impacts of the Lunar New Year on macroeconomic data, emphasizing the need to filter out distortions caused by the holiday [11] Group 8: Japanese Political Landscape - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election is expected to favor the ruling party, which may lead to more expansive fiscal policies and impact the stock market positively while negatively affecting bonds and the yen [12] Group 9: Company-Specific Insights - Lin Qingxuan is highlighted as a rapidly growing high-end skincare brand with a clear market positioning and product strategy, receiving a "buy" rating with a target price of 130.88 HKD [19] - Google is projected to see significant growth in its cloud business, despite concerns over increased capital expenditures, maintaining a "buy" rating [15] - Sony's strong performance in gaming and sensors is noted, with a target price adjustment to 5,000 JPY while maintaining a "buy" rating [16] - Eaton is expected to benefit from data center demand and operational efficiency, with a target price of 418 USD and a "hold" rating [17]

证券研究报告 林清轩 (2657 HK) 快速成长的以油养肤高端国货品牌 华泰研究 首次覆盖 投资评级(首评): 买入 2026 年 2 月 05 日│中国香港 零售 目标价(港币): 130.88 | | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 孙丹阳 研究员 sundanyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2038 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 2 月 4 日) | 82.65 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 11,716 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 43.13 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 74.45-96.00 | 股价走势图 (1) 5 10 16 21 30-Dec-25 11-Jan-26 23-Jan-26 04-Feb-26 (%) 林清轩 恒生指数 资料来源：S&P 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

证券研究报告 伊顿 (ETN US) 受益数据中心订单需求和产能释放 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 05 日│美国 | 电气设备 | 目标价(美元): | 418.00 | 公司当地时间 2 月 3 日公布 4Q25/FY25 业绩，4Q25/FY25 公司实现营收 70.55/274.48 亿美元，同比+13%/10%，经营利润率 24.9%/24.5%，同比 +0.24/0.51pct，归母净利润 11.32/40.87 亿美元，同比+16.6%/7.72%。公 司 4Q25 实现 EPS2.91 美元、调整后 EPS3.33 美元，符合 3Q25 业绩指引。 我们看好公司电气美洲和电气全球业务订单高增延续，数据中心订单有望持 续贡献增量；公司 25 年 11 月宣布收购宝德 Boyd 布局液冷产品、26 年 1 月宣布拟分拆出行（Mobility）业务聚焦电气主业，有望受益于全球电网高 景气周期和数据中心需求增长，维持"增持"评级，给予目标价 418 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for precious metals is "Overweight" (Maintain) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the long-term increase in gold holdings by central banks is driven by concerns over the creditworthiness of dollar assets, the need for stable exchange rates in extreme scenarios, and geopolitical risks. It is projected that central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves, stabilizing at around 800 tons per year from 2026 to 2030 [2] - The report anticipates that the average gold price could rise to between $5,400 and $6,800 per ounce from 2026 to 2028, driven by a potential increase in the investment allocation of gold in global financial assets [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Projections - The average gold price is expected to reach $6,800 per ounce by 2028, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being $5,463 and $6,059 per ounce respectively. This is based on historical distribution of gold allocation and structural shifts due to de-dollarization and geopolitical factors [6][12] Section 2: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to maintain a long-term increase in gold holdings, with the proportion of gold in reserves projected to rise to 21.4% by mid-2025. If this proportion reaches the historical median of 34% by 2035, the demand for gold could continue to grow [2] Section 3: Non-Investment Demand - Non-investment demand for gold, primarily from jewelry and industrial uses, is expected to stabilize. Jewelry demand is projected to average around 1,951 tons per year, while industrial demand is expected to remain steady at approximately 332 tons per year [3] Section 4: Investment Demand - The report estimates that the stock of gold allocated for personal and institutional investment will gradually increase, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 being 85,713 tons, 86,642 tons, and 87,953 tons respectively [4] Section 5: Financial Asset Allocation - There is still room for increased allocation of gold in global financial assets, with the expected market value of investable gold reaching approximately $15.1 trillion, $16.9 trillion, and $19.3 trillion in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5][16]

电子布再提价，开启新一轮上行周期 证券研究报告 基础材料 据卓创资讯，2 月 4 日光远新材、国际复材等玻纤龙头对电子布再度提价， 新一轮提价不仅幅度大，而且提价时间周期缩短，体现出电子布紧缺由高端 向普通产品扩散的趋势。我们认为普通电子布供给约束大，而需求有序恢复， 有望于 2026 年开启新一轮价格上涨周期，并为相关企业带来较高业绩弹性； 而高端电子布中的二代低介电（LDK2）和低热膨胀（LCTE）产品 26 年或 仍将存在供给缺口，有望继续提价。 2025 年初以来电子布四轮提价，本轮幅度最大 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 05 日│中国内地 动态点评 据卓创资讯，2月4日G75等普通电子纱提价后，对外主流报价10300-10700 元/吨（含税送到），环比涨幅超过 10%，价格突破万元，E225 电子纱挂牌 价格 25000 元/吨，D450 挂牌价 51000 元/吨（A 级）。现阶段厂家电子纱 多以自用为主，带动电子布报价上涨，7628 电子布市场主流价格为 5.1-5.5 元/米，环比涨幅 10-13%，2116 电子布报价 6.1 元/米左右，1080 电子布报 价 6.3 元/米左右。综合 ...

证券研究报告 索尼 (6758 JP) 游戏/音乐/传感器表现亮眼，看好 2026 年内容业务部分抵消存储影响 分业务来看，游戏/音乐/传感器业务贡献了主要利润增量：1）游戏业务季度 营收/营业利润同比-4%/+19%。虽然 PS5 硬件销量受周期性因素下滑，但 网络服务和第一方软件销售强劲，公司上调游戏业务全年营业利润指引 2% 至 JPY 510bn；2）音乐业务季度营收/营业利润同比+13%/+9%，主要受益 于流媒体收益和现场活动的拉动。公司将音乐业务全年营业利润指引上调 16%至 JPY 445bn，除了核心业务增长外，更得益于花生漫画并表带来的约 450 亿日元一次性重估收益；3）影像及传感业务季度营收/营业利润同比 +21%/+35%，主要得益于大客户智能手机对高端传感器的旺盛需求以及产 品组合的持续优化，公司上调了该业务的全年营业利润指引 13%。 已锁定下财年存储最低供应量，涨价对利润影响仍需关注 行业性的存储芯片短缺成为关注焦点，根据 TrendForce 预测（2026/2/2）， 2026年第一季度通用DRAM合约价格预计将环比上涨约90-95%，而NAND Flash 合约价预计环比 ...