证券研究报告 宁德时代 (3750 HK) 港股通 全球电气化的"心脏" 2026 年 2 月 13 日│中国香港 新能源及动力系统 我们和市场的不同： 我们认为宁德时代战略定位始终是一家能源科技公司，而不仅仅是市场归类 的电池制造业： 首次覆盖港股给予买入评级和目标价 639.79 港币。 一以贯之地强化科技属性 我们认为宁德时代在重大战略和周期判断上表现出卓越的纠偏和择时能力， 强化自身和产品的科技属性： 商用业务为基，打开未来能源综合体成长空间 宁德时代产品能力迭代和应用场景开发都围绕能源展开，正在从电芯向整体 解决方案的能源供应商角色转变，而这种能力的构建需要对于电力系统的深 刻认知，以及对于各子系统技术的充分掌握。在更远期的 2030 年代，风光 储一体化绿电直连项目、数据中心 UPS 系统、eVTOL 和机器人电池等新商 业模式和场景有望成为宁德时代收入增长的主要推动力。伴随公司推出天行 电池，聚焦重卡、客车等高负荷应用场景，匹配行业需求快速增长，我们认 为今明两年商用车板块有望成为重要增长点。 储能行业需求向好，支撑宁德时代高增长 我们认为储能需求增速有持续性。储能凭借高可控性、高调节性优势，有 ...

证券研究报告 联想集团 (992 HK) 混合式 AI 驱动业绩增长， 供应链韧性应对存储周期 2026 年 2 月 13 日│中国香港 联想公布 3QFY26 业绩：收入 222 亿美元，+18%yoy，超彭博一致预期约 7%，Non-HKFRS 归母净利润 5.89 亿美元，+36%yoy，超 4.63 亿美元彭 博一致预期约 27%，受益全球混合式 AI 需求（集团 AI 相关业务营收占比环 比+2pct 达 32%）。通过业绩会，我们认为，在存储等零部件涨价背景下， 联想凭借全球 PC 出货量第一的规模优势和供应链管控能力，相较同业具备 更强的成本传导能力和抗周期韧性。管理层在业绩会上表示，凭借与供应商 的长期合作关系，未来一个季度以及 FY27 PC 业务盈利或不受影响。我们 维持目标价 14.0 港币，对应 12.0 倍 FY27E PE，维持"买入"。 IDG：AI PC 渗透率提升和供应链优势或部分抵消存储涨价影响 IDG（智能设备业务）3QFY26 收入+14%yoy 至 157.6 亿美元，营业利润率 7.3%，在存储涨价周期下显示韧性。据 IDC，3QFY26 公司全球 PC 市场份 额 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The banking sector's profit growth is showing marginal improvement, with net interest margins stabilizing and asset quality remaining robust [5][3] - Major banks are leading the industry in asset expansion, with total assets growing by 9.0% year-on-year as of the end of Q4 2025 [2] - The net profit of commercial banks increased by 2.33% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by stable net interest margins and declining credit costs [3] - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks improved to 1.50%, indicating a healthy asset quality [4] Summary by Sections Asset Expansion - As of Q4 2025, major banks and joint-stock banks saw a marginal increase in total asset growth rates, while city and rural commercial banks experienced a slowdown [2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans increased by 11.0% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed [2] Profit Growth - The net profit growth of commercial banks improved by 2.3 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, with significant rebounds in city and rural commercial banks [3] - The annualized ROE and ROA for commercial banks were 7.78% and 0.60%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year [2] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 2 basis points from the end of September 2025, with major banks showing a decline in non-performing loan ratios [4] - The provision coverage ratio for commercial banks was 205%, indicating a reasonable risk compensation ability [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on structural opportunities within the banking sector, highlighting specific banks such as Ningbo, Nanjing, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for their strong performance and dividend yield [5][9]

证券研究报告 Vertiv (VRT US) 订单加速，功率升级催化液冷与 800VDC 渗透 2026 年 2 月 12 日│美国 其他电子 Vertiv 2/11 盘前公布 4Q25 财报，盈利、26Q1 和全年指引均大超预期，收 盘股价上涨 24%，主系在手订单大幅加速。公司 4Q 营收 28.8 亿美元，同 比+23%/环比+8%，对比彭博一致预期的 28.8 亿美元与指引的 28.5 亿美元； Non-GAAP EPS 为 1.36 美元，同比+37%/环比+10%，对比预期的 1.29 美 元与指引的 1.26 美元。经调整营业利润率 23.2%，环比+1pct。公司指引中 值均超一致预期：26Q1/全年营收 25-27/132.5-137.5 亿美元（预期 25/124 亿美元）及 Non-GAAP EPS 指引 0.95-1.01/5.97-6.07 美元（预期 0.93/5.29 美元）。管理层表示当前交付周期维持在 12-18 个月，因此 Q4 部分订单推 至 2027 年，对 2026 年整体订单充足程度表示满意。我们认为英伟达 Rubin 和 AMD MI400 系列，谷歌、亚马逊等自 ...

证券研究报告 科思股份 (300856 CH) 底部已现，关注基本面改善进展 2026 年 2 月 12 日│中国内地 零售 | 华泰研究 | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 2 月 12 日│中国内地 | 零售 | 目标价(人民币): | 16.10 | | 公司当前处于基本面低点，但我们认为多项积极因素正在积聚。下游大客户 | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | | 去库存或接近尾声；公司盈利能力及订单价格处低位，下行空间有限，向上 | | SAC No. S0570524050001 | fanjunhao@htsc.com | | | | SFC No. BDO986 | +(852) 3658 6000 | | 存在改善可能；26 年马来新厂/美国市场 PS 准入/去屑剂等增量可期。综上， | | | | | 我们预计 26 年公司销量有望率先恢复正增长，价格企稳并存在改善可能， | | 孙丹阳 | 研究员 | | | | SAC No. S0570519010001 | sundanyang@htsc.com | | 若 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 13 日 宋亭亭 汽车行业首席研究员 邮箱： songtingting021619@htsc.com 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首席研究 员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日深度 汽车：摩托质价比破局时刻已至 本届米兰展上我们观察到，欧洲摩托市场的需求结构演变，以及外资二线品 牌的守成产品策略，正为中国品牌的强势突围提供契机。随着以隆鑫、春风 为代表的中国头部摩企在技术储备与渠道建设上完成质的积累，向欧洲出海 已跨越单纯的价格竞争阶段，步入以"质价比"重塑市场格局的新周期。中 国摩企凭借动总技术突破、智能化配置优势以及针对欧洲本土审美的定制化 设计，正于 300 至 800cc 黄金排量段及跨界细分市场建立明显优势，在欧洲 市场具备广阔增长空间。 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 1 风险提示：汇率波动风险、欧洲宏观经济下行风险、海运周期/费率波动风 险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-10 研究员 宋亭亭 SAC:S0570522110001 SFC:BTK945 陈诗慧 SAC:S0570524080 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5] Core Views - The company is expected to incur a loss of approximately 750-850 million RMB for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of about 1.8 billion RMB related to the acquisition of New丽 Media [1][2] - Excluding the goodwill impairment, the company anticipates a non-IFRS net profit of 800-900 million RMB, which is below the consensus estimate of 1.193 billion RMB [1][5] - Despite the short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's core strengths in IP operations and growth potential in IP derivatives and short dramas [1][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in losses due to the impairment of goodwill related to New丽 Media, with a projected loss of 750-850 million RMB for 2025 compared to a loss of 209 million RMB in 2024 [1][2] - The impairment is expected to improve the quality of the balance sheet by eliminating ongoing concerns about goodwill erosion [2] AI Integration and Content Growth - The company is actively exploring the integration of AI in its content business, launching the "Miao Bi Tong Jian" AI web literature knowledge base, which has increased author interaction with AI by 40% [3] - The company has developed AI short dramas and comics, with over 2,000 web literature IPs opened for quality short drama projects, generating over 80 million RMB in single project revenue [3] IP Commercialization and Derivative Products - The company holds the largest network literature IP reserve, with IP derivative GMV reaching 480 million RMB in the first half of 2025, nearing the full-year target of 500 million RMB for 2024 [4] - The pace of new product launches has increased significantly, with the number of new products rising by 3-4 times compared to the previous year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 850 million, 1.36 billion, and 1.51 billion RMB, respectively [5][12] - The target price is set at 47.20 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, considering a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 3.8x for online business and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.9x for IP operations [5][13]

2026 年 2 月 12 日│中国内地/中国香港 半导体 中芯国际 4Q25 收入环比增长 4.5%，超越此前指引上限。产能利用率维持 在 95.7%的高位。毛利率为 19.2%，符合此前指引的 18%~20%，环比有所 回落主要是受折旧增加影响。公司指引 1Q26 收入环比持平，毛利率 18%～ 20%，指引 2026 年全年收入增幅"高于同业平均值"，预计资本开支与 2025 年（81 亿美元）大致持平。从业绩会中，我们观察到：1）2026 年，AI 相 关需求外溢或将导致成熟工艺供需关系收紧，或推动公司 ASP 稳步提升；2） 看好公司积极布局先进封装等新业务领域，逐步形成自己的"Foundry 2.0" 发展战略。给予港股目标价 91 港元（前值：100 港元），A 股目标价 170 人民币（前值：192 人民币），维持"买入"评级。 证券研究报告 港股通 中芯国际 (688981 CH/981 HK) AI 溢出效应开始显现，看好中芯 2.0 发展机遇 AI 需求外溢导致成熟制程供给收缩，或推动 26/27 年 ASP 稳步上升 展望 2026 年，我们认为公司 ASP 将受益于两条主线的双重支撑 ...

证券研究报告 有道 (DAO US) 广告快速增长，现金流显著改善 2026 年 2 月 12 日│美国 K12 教育 AI 应用投放驱动广告业务超预期 Q4 公司广告业务延续快速增长势头，收入 6.6 亿，yoy+37.2%，主要受益 于 Q4 各大厂商 AI 应用竞争加剧，获客需求显著提升，推高投放需求，其 中游戏板块收入同比增长超过 50%，AI 应用相关广告收入同比增长超 50%。 Q4 海外 KOL 收入同比增长超 50%，目前在超 50 个国家执行营销服务。 Q4 广告毛利率 27.8%，环比提升 2.4pp，主因国内程序化广告毛利率持续 改善，部分被新客户获客阶段相对较低的毛利率所稀释。大厂 AI 应用竞争 持续加剧，我们预计有望推动 26Q1 广告业务实现同比 20%以上增长。 学习服务恢复增长，AI 应用季度销售额破亿 Q4 学习服务收入为 7.27 亿元，yoy+17.7%，收入重回增长轨道。核心产品 维持良好增势，有道领世收入同比维持 40%+增长，续费率提升 5pp 至 75%， 推动 Q4 毛利率同比提升 2.5pp 至 62.5%；Q4 AI 订阅服务销售额破亿，同 比增长 80% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 91 for H-shares and RMB 170 for A-shares [6][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of AI-related demand on the company's average selling price (ASP), predicting a steady increase in ASP due to both AI demand and a reduction in supply of traditional products [2][20]. - The establishment of an advanced packaging research institute is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's capabilities in advanced processes and packaging, aligning with the "Foundry 2.0" development strategy [3][22]. - The company is expected to maintain a high capacity utilization rate and stable revenue growth, with 2026 revenue projected to exceed industry averages [1][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of USD 2.489 billion, a 4.5% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a gross margin of 19.2%, which aligns with previous guidance [14][16]. - The company anticipates Q1 2026 revenue to remain flat with a gross margin between 18% and 20% [19][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upward by 1.9% and 4.1%, respectively, with expected revenue growth of 18% in 2026, 22% in 2027, and 11% in 2028, reaching USD 110 billion, USD 134 billion, and USD 149 billion [20][4]. - Net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward by 4.6% and 14.7%, respectively, with projected net profits of USD 7.0 billion, USD 7.9 billion, and USD 9.7 billion for 2026 to 2028 [20][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as the only scalable advanced process platform in mainland China, benefiting from strategic scarcity [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localization in production, driven by supply chain security, and anticipates continued progress in domestic production in sectors like analog, RF, and CIS [3][22].