证券研究报告 港股通 南山铝业国际 (2610 HK) 兼具稳定现金流与高成长性 2026 年 2 月 10 日│中国香港 首次覆盖南山铝业国际给予买入评级，给予 26 年 PE13 倍，对应目标价 78.18 港元。公司是东南亚领先的氧化铝生产商，已形成 400 万吨氧化铝产 能，此外公司计划新建 25 万吨/年电解铝产能，并远期规划建设 50 万吨/年 电解铝项目，公司氧化铝业务利润稳定叠加 2028 年之后新建电解铝项目或 贡献较大业绩增量，我们看好公司未来利润实现稳步增长。 公司当前主营氧化铝业务成本优势显著，构筑稳固现金流 公司主营业务为氧化铝生产与销售，于 2025 年 3 月成功在香港联交所主板 上市，控股股东为 A 股上市公司南山铝业。截至 25 年年底，公司在印尼宾 坦岛建成并投产年产能合计 400 万吨的氧化铝生产基地。受益于印尼丰富 的铝土矿资源禀赋及铝土矿出口禁令政策，公司氧化铝原料端成本优势显 著，根据我们测算，2024 年铝土矿采购均价仅 35.0 美元/吨，显著低于几 内亚和澳大利亚 CIF 均价的 76.5 美元/吨和 62. 5 美元/吨。低成本优势导致 公司氧化铝销售业务盈 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 存储涨价影响短期盈利， 汽车业务规模效应渐显 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 10 日│中国香港 | 消费电子 | 目标价(港币): | 47.00 | 近期我们看到，行业中 DRAM 和 NAND 存储的价格仍在快速上涨（图 3-4）， 我们认为，这会对全球消费电子产品需求及品牌毛利率产生不利影响。尽管 4Q25，我们预计小米收入仍有望在汽车 14 万台的交付推动下同比增长 10% 至 1199 亿元，但受存储涨价影响，我们预计整体集团毛利率环比下降 2.4pp 至 20.5%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润或同比下降 22%至 65 亿元（其中汽车盈 利 8 亿）。分业务看：1）汽车业务收入预计达 372 亿（+123%yoy，28%QoQ）， 毛利率预计为 21.6%，受 SU7 Ultra 交付占比下降环比有所波动；2）受存 储涨价影响，小米手机 IDC 4Q 出货量下滑至 3780 万台（-11. ...

证券研究报告 港股通 敏实集团 (425 HK/MNTHY US) 拟成立美国机器人合资公司 | 华泰研究 | | --- | 2026 年 2 月 9 日，公司与绿的谐波签订框架协议，拟于美国成立合资公司 开展人形机器人关节模组业务，机器人业务全球化布局再落地。此前公司已 于 2025 年 12 月与某头部机器人公司签署欧洲战略合作协议，布局整机代 工及零部件供应。展望后续，我们认为公司传统业务有望保持稳健增长，电 池盒业务全球范围加速放量，机器人/AI 液冷/低空经济等战略新业务前瞻布 局、多点开花，有望打开公司中长期成长上限。维持买入评级。 携手绿的谐波布局北美，机器人合作再落地 公司机器人业务全球化布局加速落地。2026 年 2 月 9 日公告，公司与绿的 谐波签订框架协议，拟于美国成立合资公司（敏实 60%/绿的 40%，出资 1000 万美元），开展人形机器人关节模组总成业务。此外在 2025 年 12 月，公 司已与某行业领先机器人公司签订为期三年的欧洲市场战略合作，负责通用 具身智能机器人的代工生产与经销。敏实本身布局机器人结构件/关节/智能 外饰/无线充电等产品，并且具备全球化产能+工业化能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several financial institutions including China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, and a "Hold" rating for others like GF Securities and Dongfang Securities [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a net outflow of 1.01 trillion yuan from broad-based ETFs in January 2026, indicating increased market volatility and a shift in investor sentiment towards high-quality financial stocks [1][3]. - The overall market for wealth management products saw a decrease in issuance, with 2,728 new products launched in January 2026, down 10.4% month-on-month, while the average yield for these products increased to 3.62%, up 177 basis points from the previous month [2][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly implemented performance benchmark guidelines for public funds, which aim to strengthen the alignment of interests between fund managers and investors [3][15]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Products - In January 2026, the total issuance of wealth management products was 2,728, a decrease of 10.4% from December, while the total market size for these products was 31.57 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline [2][16]. - The average yield for wealth management products increased to 3.62%, reflecting a positive trend in returns despite the decrease in issuance [2][15]. Public Funds - The public fund market saw a 6% increase in new issuance in January, but the total market size decreased to 36.30 trillion yuan, down 1.24% month-on-month [3][15]. - The net asset value of ETFs fell to 5.46 trillion yuan, with a significant outflow of 1.01 trillion yuan from broad-based ETFs [3][15]. Private Funds - As of December 2025, the total size of private fund products reached 22.15 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.27% [5][15]. - The report notes a strong growth in the registration of private securities investment funds, which increased by 157% year-on-year [5][15]. Insurance Asset Management - By the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds reached 37.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [6][15]. - The report indicates a rising trend in the allocation of insurance funds to equities, with a notable increase in stock investment ratios [6][15]. Securities Asset Management - The size of securities asset management reached 6.37 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [4][15]. - New issuance in January 2026 amounted to 77.42 billion units, representing a 20% increase from the previous month [4][15]. Trust Industry - The trust industry reported an asset size of 32.43 trillion yuan as of June 2025, marking a 10% increase since the beginning of the year [7][15]. - In January 2026, 1,377 trust products were issued, totaling 110.5 billion yuan, which is a 15% month-on-month increase [7][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector, suggesting investors take advantage of low prices to acquire quality leading companies [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector, driven by seasonal demand and improved sales performance during the Chinese New Year [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading brands with strong fundamentals, particularly in the liquor and dairy segments, as they are expected to outperform their peers [2][4]. Summary by Category Liquor - The liquor industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, with top brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing strong sales, while others face challenges [1]. - Kweichow Moutai benefits from marketing reforms and strong demand, with its product prices stabilizing above 1600 RMB [1]. - Recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and other leading brands for investment [1]. Dairy Products - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are expected to achieve strong sales during the Chinese New Year, with inventory levels remaining healthy [2]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the raw milk cycle, with prices expected to stabilize, benefiting leading dairy firms [2]. - Recommended stocks include Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to gain market share in 2026 [2]. Restaurant Supply Chain and Condiments - The report sees a recovery in the restaurant sector, supported by government policies and improved consumer confidence [3]. - Leading companies are adjusting pricing strategies to enhance profitability, with inventory levels remaining healthy [3]. - Key recommendations include Anjijia and Haitian Flavoring, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [3]. Snacks - The snack industry is poised for growth, with increased sales during the Chinese New Year and a shift towards efficient retail channels [4]. - Recommended stocks include Weilian and Qiaqia, which are expected to maintain high profitability levels [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum International with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of HKD 78.18 based on a PE of 13 times for 2026 [1]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia with a stable cash flow and high growth potential, having established a production capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and plans for additional aluminum production [1][2]. - The company benefits from significant cost advantages in its alumina business due to Indonesia's rich bauxite resources and export bans, leading to higher profitability compared to domestic averages [2][14]. - A new 250,000-ton aluminum production capacity is expected to be operational by 2028, which could significantly boost future earnings [3][15]. - The global aluminum price is projected to reach an average of USD 3,200 per ton in 2026, supported by limited supply growth and recovering demand [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum International is primarily engaged in alumina production and sales, with a production base in Indonesia. The company has a total alumina capacity of 4 million tons, benefiting from low raw material costs [2][14]. - The company is controlled by Nanshan Aluminum, which holds a 56.97% stake, ensuring stable governance and resource support [18][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of USD 1.2 billion, USD 1.48 billion, and USD 1.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are expected to reach USD 412.1 million, USD 475.3 million, and USD 568.3 million in the same years [5][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with a projected gross profit margin of 51% in the first half of 2025 [21][27]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the global supply of aluminum is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 1.7% in 2026. This is due to domestic production constraints and slow recovery in overseas capacities [4][34]. - Demand for aluminum is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [4][16]. Future Growth Potential - The planned 250,000-ton aluminum project is expected to contribute approximately USD 259 million in net profit once operational, with further expansion plans for an additional 500,000 tons in the future [3][15]. - The company’s low-cost structure and stable cash flow from its alumina business are expected to support its growth trajectory and profitability in the coming years [2][14].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved a significant victory in the recent elections, gaining over 20% more seats in the House of Representatives, which is unprecedented since World War II. This victory is expected to facilitate the implementation of loose monetary and fiscal policies, as well as a "Japan First" foreign policy [2][3] - The global manufacturing PMI rose for the sixth consecutive month in January, indicating ongoing recovery in the manufacturing sector. Developed countries showed more significant improvements compared to emerging markets, with new orders and export orders also improving [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Market Trends - The A-share market experienced a decline due to macroeconomic fluctuations, with net outflows of financing funds exceeding 50 billion. The pricing power is shifting towards institutional funds, with a notable increase in the positions of active equity funds [4][5] - The liquidity tracking report indicated a marginal easing in the funding environment, with DR007 averaging 1.48%, down 9 basis points from the previous week. The overall net injection in the open market was -6,560 billion [5] Group 3: Real Estate and Commercial Property - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with residential prices experiencing the largest monthly increase since April 2025. The inventory of unsold new homes is decreasing, and rental prices have reached historical highs [8] - The introduction of REITs in commercial real estate is progressing rapidly, with 10 projects successfully submitted for approval. This development is expected to enhance asset liquidity and drive value re-evaluation for related companies [12] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - Enphase Energy reported a revenue of $343 million for Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.3%. However, the company anticipates a recovery in performance due to new product launches and favorable market conditions [19] - The domestic chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability as the price spread between raw materials and products has widened, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [10] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for companies like Minshi Group, which is expanding its robotics business in the U.S. and Europe, indicating a strong growth trajectory in traditional and new business segments [18] - The approval of D-allohexose enzyme preparations in China is expected to benefit Baolong Chuangyuan, a leader in functional sugars, as it accelerates the application of allulose in the market [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Views - The company is establishing a joint venture in the U.S. with Harmonic Drive to develop humanoid robot joint modules, marking a significant step in its global robotics business expansion [1][2]. - The traditional business is expected to maintain steady growth, with the battery box business accelerating globally, and new strategic initiatives in robotics, AI, liquid cooling, and low-altitude economy potentially enhancing long-term growth prospects [1][3]. - The battery box business is entering a harvest phase, with revenue of 3.582 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.8% and a gross margin of 23.0% [4]. Summary by Sections Joint Venture and Global Expansion - On February 9, 2026, the company signed a framework agreement with Harmonic Drive to establish a joint venture in the U.S., with a 60% stake for the company and a 40% stake for Harmonic Drive, involving an investment of 10 million USD [2]. - The company has previously signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a leading robotics company for the European market, focusing on the production and distribution of general embodied intelligent robots [2]. New Business Developments - The company is diversifying into liquid cooling and low-altitude economy sectors, with significant orders from a global semiconductor company for liquid cooling cabinets and systems [3]. - A strategic partnership with EHang for eVTOL aircraft and rotor systems has been established, with intentions for mass production orders [3]. - The company has issued 2.4 million shares as part of a zero-cost equity incentive plan, targeting core R&D personnel in new strategic areas [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects revenues of 27.774 billion RMB in 2025, 32.033 billion RMB in 2026, and 36.851 billion RMB in 2027, with net profits projected at 2.847 billion RMB, 3.430 billion RMB, and 4.070 billion RMB respectively [9][5]. - The target price is set at 49.71 HKD for 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15.2 times, and a target price of 127.13 USD for the U.S. market [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810 HK) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 47.00 [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the rising prices of DRAM and NAND storage are negatively impacting the gross margins of consumer electronics, including Xiaomi's products. Despite this, Xiaomi's revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year in 4Q25, driven by the delivery of 140,000 vehicles [1][2]. - The automotive business is showing significant growth, with expected revenue of RMB 37.2 billion in 4Q25, representing a 123% year-on-year increase. The gross margin for this segment is projected to be around 21.6% [1][3]. - The smartphone segment is facing challenges, with expected shipments declining to 37.8 million units in 4Q25, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a gross margin drop to approximately 8.5% [1][4]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment is anticipated to see a revenue decline of 19% year-on-year to RMB 25.2 billion, while maintaining a high gross margin of 22.2% [1][4]. - The Internet services revenue is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year to RMB 9.5 billion, with a stable gross margin of 76.9% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Automotive and New Business - In 4Q25, Xiaomi's automotive deliveries are expected to reach approximately 140,000 units, generating revenue of RMB 37.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.2%. The gross margin for the automotive segment may decline to around 21.6% due to changes in model delivery proportions [3]. - For 2026, the company aims to deliver 650,000 vehicles, exceeding its initial target of 550,000 units, with an anticipated adjusted gross margin of 23.6% [3]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet - The global smartphone market is projected to see a slight decline in shipments, with Xiaomi's expected to drop to 37.8 million units in 4Q25, resulting in a gross margin decrease to 8.5% [4]. - The IoT business is forecasted to generate approximately RMB 25.2 billion in revenue for 4Q25, with a gross margin of 22.2% [4]. - Internet services are expected to yield RMB 9.5 billion in revenue, maintaining a gross margin of 76.9% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward by 3.1%, 9.5%, and 11.5% respectively, with non-GAAP net profit estimates reduced by 9.1%, 21.4%, and 19.4% [5]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 47.00, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, corresponding to a 29x PE ratio for 2026 [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 97.65 [1][5] Core Insights - The company, Nanwei Medical, is a leading domestic player in endoscopic medical consumables, with significant growth in international markets, particularly in developed countries. From 2014 to 2024, overseas revenue is expected to grow 12.6 times, with nearly 60% of revenue coming from international markets in 9M25. The company is well-positioned to benefit from a stable domestic policy environment regarding centralized procurement [1][16] - The report highlights the company's strong global expansion capabilities, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% in overseas revenue from 2013 to 2024. The direct sales model has significantly increased its contribution to revenue, indicating a robust international market presence [2][4] Summary by Sections Overseas Market Performance - The company has achieved a CAGR of 30% in overseas revenue from 2013 to 2024, with 9M25 overseas revenue reaching RMB 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%. The Americas, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific regions have shown growth rates of 20%, 73%, and 32% respectively, with overseas revenue accounting for 59% of total revenue [2][16] - The global endoscopic market is projected to grow from approximately USD 6 billion in 2023 to USD 7.4 billion by 2026, with the company currently holding less than 6% market share, indicating significant growth potential [2][33] Domestic Market Dynamics - The impact of centralized procurement on domestic revenue is expected to diminish, with the company winning bids in key regions without further price declines. The government has emphasized quality over price in procurement policies, which stabilizes expectations for future revenue [3][18] - Domestic revenue for 9M25 was RMB 980 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% due to procurement pressures, but the company anticipates a gradual recovery as overseas revenue continues to grow [3][24] Differentiation from Market Views - The report argues that concerns regarding the impact of centralized procurement are manageable and decreasing. The company’s overseas revenue share is expected to continue rising, while the share of non-procurement products in domestic revenue is likely to decline [4][19] - The market has not fully recognized the company's exceptional global business capabilities, with overseas revenue growth and contribution metrics indicating that Nanwei Medical is among the top tier of domestic medical device companies [4][19] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 600 million, RMB 710 million, and RMB 840 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 3.22, RMB 3.76, and RMB 4.49. The valuation is set at 26x PE for 2026, leading to a target price of RMB 97.65 [5][9]