TRANSSION(688036) 浦银国际证券·2025-02-27 07:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings with a target price of RMB 114.2, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of RMB 97.7 [3][5][9]. Core Insights - Transsion Holdings has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in revenue and profit for Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for growth in 2025. The company is expected to rank fourth globally in smartphone shipments in 2024, with a market share of 8.7%, continuing to grow from 2023 [9][12]. - The growth drivers for 2025 include strong smartphone shipment growth, expansion in digital accessories and energy storage products, and accelerated growth in mobile internet business, benefiting from operational leverage [9][12]. - The DCF valuation method estimates a target price of RMB 114.2, with a WACC of 6.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [15][17]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Transsion Holdings from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 62,295 million - 2024E: RMB 68,743 million - 2025E: RMB 78,105 million - 2026E: RMB 89,470 million - 2027E: RMB 100,537 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 34% for 2023, 10% for 2024, and 14% for 2025 [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: RMB 5,537 million - 2024E: RMB 5,590 million - 2025E: RMB 6,080 million - 2026E: RMB 7,363 million - 2027E: RMB 8,511 million - The net profit growth rates are 123% for 2023, 1% for 2024, and 9% for 2025 [4][10]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights the following key financial ratios: - Gross margin is projected to be 24.5% in 2023, decreasing to 21.4% in 2024E, and stabilizing around 22.0% by 2027E [4][10]. - The target P/E ratios are 16.6x for 2023, increasing to 23.3x in 2024E, and then decreasing to 15.3x by 2027E [4][10].