2025年开年宏观展望：政策篇：于约束中寻次优

Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2024, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate was only 2.7%, significantly below the budgeted 7.9%, resulting in a shortfall of 1.96 trillion CNY[5] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is projected to reach 4%-4.5%, with a new special bond issuance scale potentially expanding to 4.5-5 trillion CNY[3] - The government plans to increase special bonds for "two new" and "two heavy" projects to 1.3 trillion CNY in 2025[3] Monetary Policy Considerations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 reached 30-50 basis points, but the central bank has delayed these cuts due to concerns over exchange rate stability[3] - The central bank's monetary policy remains tight, with interbank liquidity showing a balanced state, reducing the urgency for monetary easing[3] - The central bank aims to stabilize the exchange rate while managing capital outflows, leading to a complex decision-making environment[3] Economic Growth and Challenges - The anticipated fiscal measures are expected to counteract potential external shocks, such as a 60% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports, which could impact GDP by 0.8-0.9 percentage points[3] - The focus for 2025 will be on optimizing expenditure structure to enhance social welfare, promote consumption, and support employment[3] - The government will emphasize the importance of local government financial health and the balance between risk prevention and growth stabilization[3]