2025年全国“两会”前瞻：逆周期下的政策变奏

Core Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5%, with a weighted average of local GDP growth targets at approximately 5.34%, down from 5.61% in 2024, indicating a more conservative outlook from local "Two Sessions" [3][8] - Investment growth is projected to be relatively stable at an average target of 6.6%, while social consumption is expected to decline to an average target of 5.6%, and export growth targets are anticipated to drop significantly by about 3.4 percentage points to 6.1% [3][9] - Fiscal policy is expected to adopt a more aggressive stance through measures such as increasing the deficit ratio to 3.5-4%, issuing long-term special bonds, and expanding local government special bond issuance, with an estimated issuance scale of 1.5 trillion yuan [3][5] - Monetary policy may see adjustments with a potential reserve requirement ratio cut of around 25 basis points in the first half of the year, as the central bank aims to stabilize the currency and prevent excessive fluctuations [4][5] Economic Growth Targets - The economic growth targets for various provinces show that 13 provinces maintain their 2024 targets, while 15 provinces have lowered their targets for 2025, particularly in western regions [3][8] - Specific provinces like Hebei, Liaoning, and Tianjin have increased their growth targets compared to 2024, indicating localized optimism [3][8] Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors related to innovation, technology, and modernization, with a focus on the "first-store economy" and AI applications [5][11] - The "first-store economy" is expected to thrive in diverse consumption scenarios, particularly in retail, digital technology, and cultural tourism, with major cities leading in new store openings [5][11] - The AI sector is projected to see significant growth, with the core industry expected to exceed 1.73 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for over 30% of the global market [5][11] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will focus on three main strategies: increasing the deficit ratio, issuing long-term special bonds, and enhancing local government special bond issuance, which is expected to improve the efficiency of fund utilization [3][5] - The monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential adjustments based on domestic and international economic conditions, aiming to balance growth and stability [4][5] Sectoral Focus - The report highlights the importance of digital economy initiatives across various provinces, emphasizing the integration of digital technologies in traditional industries and the promotion of AI applications [11][12] - Provinces are encouraged to enhance their digital infrastructure and foster innovation-driven economic growth, with specific actions outlined for sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, and environmental sustainability [11][12]