Shandong Teamgene Technology (603151) 华鑫证券·2025-02-27 11:02Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" [4][9] Core Views - The pig feed industry is expected to see both volume and price increases in 2025, with Q1 performance already reflecting this trend [1] - The company is shifting its customer strategy from serving small-scale farmers to focusing on large clients, which may initially pressure profit margins but offers new growth opportunities [2] - The product structure is changing, with an expected increase in the proportion of compound feed, which is more suitable for the new customer model [3] - The company is positioned for significant growth, with projected feed sales expected to double over the next three years [8] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - In 2025, the pig feed industry is anticipated to experience simultaneous increases in both volume and price, driven by rising corn and soybean meal prices, which have increased by 24.84% and 4.11% respectively since the beginning of the year [1] Customer Strategy - The company is transitioning to focus on large-scale clients, which has led to an increase in accounts receivable turnover days from 26.23 days at the end of 2023 to 61.17 days in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Product Structure - The shift towards a "company + farmer" model is expected to increase the revenue share of compound feed, despite a potential decrease in overall profit margins [3] Sales Growth Projections - The company is projected to achieve feed sales of 760,000 tons in 2024, 1,200,000 tons in 2025, 1,600,000 tons in 2026, and 2,000,000 tons in 2027, indicating a doubling of sales over the next three years [8] Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 2.182 billion, 3.256 billion, and 4.226 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42, 0.83, and 1.00 [9][11]