NEO(600184) 中邮证券·2025-02-27 05:05Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is projected to incur a net loss of between 180 million to 200 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to a decline in revenue from defense products as customer plans have been postponed [5][6]. - The company has a backlog of defense product orders totaling approximately 1.49 billion yuan, with expectations for a turnaround as certain models are set to complete development and begin mass production [6]. - A proposed capital increase of up to 1.02 billion yuan aims to enhance capabilities in high-performance optical materials and advanced components, as well as digital R&D for precision-guided products [6]. - Strategic cooperation between major defense groups is anticipated to enrich the asset base available to the company as a listed platform [7]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are projected at -188 million yuan, 7.6 million yuan, and 15 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 85 and 43 for 2025-2026 [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is expected to decline from 2.201 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.537 billion yuan in 2024, before rebounding to 2.432 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.075 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of -12.43%, -30.13%, 58.18%, and 26.45% respectively [10][13]. - The EBITDA is projected to shift from 127.08 million yuan in 2023 to -91.23 million yuan in 2024, then recover to 187.28 million yuan in 2025 and 266.36 million yuan in 2026 [10][13]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 69.17 million yuan in 2023, dropping to -188.25 million yuan in 2024, and then recovering to 76.21 million yuan in 2025 and 150.24 million yuan in 2026 [10][13].