重卡行业1月跟踪月报：春节扰动不改内需向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the heavy truck industry, suggesting a favorable investment environment driven by domestic demand recovery and policy support [12][13]. Core Insights - January sales figures for terminal and export volumes slightly exceeded expectations, indicating resilience despite seasonal disruptions [10][11]. - The heavy truck market is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a notable increase in natural gas truck penetration rates [11][12]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with Weichai Power regaining its leading position in engine market share [12][66]. Sales Tracking - In January, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 72,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 25.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.3% [9][27]. - Terminal sales for January were 34,000 units, remaining stable year-on-year with a slight month-on-month decline of 51.4% due to the Spring Festival impact [9][22]. - Export sales in January totaled 24,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% but a month-on-month increase of 4.3% [9][27]. Demand Tracking - The report indicates that macroeconomic indicators remain stable, supporting the overall demand for heavy trucks [77]. - The heavy truck market is characterized by a shift towards higher horsepower and natural gas vehicles, with natural gas truck penetration reaching 22.8% in January [11][37]. Competitive Landscape - In terms of terminal sales market share for January, Dongfeng, Jiefang, and China National Heavy Duty Truck accounted for 22.2%, 19.9%, and 18.8% respectively, with Dongfeng showing a recovery in market share [11][57]. - Weichai Power's market share in the engine segment rose to 20.8%, regaining the top position among competitors [12][66]. Inventory Tracking - The total industry inventory increased by 18,000 units in January, with a total of 133,000 units currently in stock, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [9][28]. - The inventory coefficient calculated based on the average terminal sales over the past 12 months stands at 2.7, which is considered a reasonable level [28]. Structural Insights - The report notes a significant rebound in the natural gas heavy truck segment, with sales of 8,000 units in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [11][37]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 17.8% in January, indicating a growing trend towards cleaner energy solutions in the heavy truck market [11][37].