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平安证券：晨会纪要-20250228
Ping An Securities·2025-02-28 00:14

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a deficit rate of 4%-4.5% for 2025, with new special bond issuance potentially expanding to CNY 4.5-5 trillion, aimed at supporting key projects [2][8] - The fiscal measures are expected to generate an incremental deficit of CNY 2.5 trillion to counter potential external shocks, such as a 60% tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods [2][8] - The implementation of a "zero-based budgeting" approach is expected to gain traction in 2025, enhancing fiscal policy effectiveness [2][8] Group 2: Company Overview - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates gold and non-ferrous metal mining, with projects in China, Southeast Asia, and West Africa, holding a rich gold resource base [3][10] - The company reported a gold resource reserve of 1.27 billion tons and a metal resource amount of approximately 454 tons as of 2023 [3][11] - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are CNY 91.02 billion, CNY 106.19 billion, and CNY 114.04 billion, with net profits expected to be CNY 17.86 billion, CNY 21.23 billion, and CNY 23.02 billion respectively [3][13] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Roche - Roche's 2024 revenue reached CHF 604.95 billion (approximately USD 688.92 billion), marking a 7% year-on-year increase [4][14] - The pharmaceutical segment generated CHF 461.71 billion (approximately USD 525.80 billion), an 8% increase, while the diagnostics segment saw revenues of CHF 143.24 billion (approximately USD 163.12 billion), up 4% [4][14] - Roche anticipates maintaining single-digit sales growth in 2025, with a high single-digit growth rate for EPS [4][14] Group 4: Key Product Performance - Roche - Roche's oncology segment generated CHF 237.44 billion in 2024, reflecting a 7% increase, while the ophthalmology segment experienced a significant 44% growth, driven by the rapid uptake of the product Faricimab [4][15] - The company is focusing on expanding its portfolio in breast cancer treatment, with the product Itovebi expected to gain EU approval in the first half of 2025 [4][15]