HKEX(00388) 申万宏源·2025-02-28 02:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][14]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in 2024, with total revenue of HKD 22.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and net profit of HKD 13.05 billion, also up 10% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights the sustainable improvement in Hong Kong stock market liquidity, supported by fee reforms and the influx of mainland long-term capital [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the deepening interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong IPO markets, with a significant increase in IPO activities [5][6]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue and profit projections for the company from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (in million HKD): 20,516 (2023), 22,374 (2024), 24,767 (2025E), 26,283 (2026E), 27,104 (2027E) [2][6]. - Net profit (in million HKD): 11,862 (2023), 13,050 (2024), 14,307 (2025E), 15,108 (2026E), 15,451 (2027E) [2][6]. - The company anticipates a net profit growth of 10% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 [5]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue is primarily driven by trading and settlement fees, contributing nearly 60% to its main revenue. The breakdown of revenue by segment for 2024 is as follows: - Cash market: HKD 9.42 billion (+15% YoY) - Equity securities and derivatives: HKD 6.20 billion (-5% YoY) - Commodities: HKD 2.79 billion (+27% YoY) - Data and connectivity: HKD 2.13 billion (+3% YoY) - Company projects: HKD 1.83 billion (+15% YoY) [5][6]. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report raises the earnings forecast for 2025-2026 and introduces a forecast for 2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The company is expected to achieve net profits of HKD 14.31 billion, HKD 15.11 billion, and HKD 15.45 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [5][6].