古茗：深耕产品、区域加密，成长与红利兼备-20250228

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 17.49 per share based on a PE of 20.0X for 2025E [4]. Core Insights - The company is the second-largest brand in China's ready-to-drink tea market, with a market share of 9.1% in 2023. The company plans to distribute a special dividend of HKD 2 billion in 2025 and commits to an annual dividend of no less than 50% of net profit [1][4]. - The tea beverage industry is experiencing increased brand differentiation and a shift from rapid expansion to market consolidation. The company shows resilience compared to its peers, with a notable improvement in its market position [1][2][39]. - The company has a strong product development strategy, launching 130 new products in 2023 and effectively capturing market trends, such as the rising popularity of light milk tea [1][3]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 2010 and has grown to become a leading player in the ready-to-drink tea sector. It went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in February 2025, raising HKD 17.2 billion for digitalization and supply chain improvements [1][42]. - The ownership structure is concentrated among the founding team, ensuring alignment of interests with key executives [45][46]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of HKD 7.676 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 32.3% from 2021 to 2023. The revenue growth is driven by store expansion and strong same-store sales performance [48]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at HKD 15.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [4][48]. - The company maintains a relatively stable profit margin compared to competitors, with a gross margin of 30.5% in 2024Q1-3, only slightly declining from the previous year [62]. Competitive Landscape - The ready-to-drink tea market is characterized by intense competition, with the company showing better resilience in same-store sales compared to peers like Nayuki and Heytea [39][48]. - The company has a significant market presence in key provinces, with 9778 stores as of Q3 2024, and plans to continue expanding in underrepresented regions [2][3][42]. Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its store network significantly, with potential growth in eight key provinces and plans to introduce coffee products to diversify its offerings [3][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the competitive landscape, with a potential reduction in the number of underperforming brands [39].