降息周期遇上执政周期，美国地产将走向何方？

Group 1: Interest Rate Cycle - The current interest rate cycle in the U.S. has seen a 100 basis point (bp) reduction since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September 2024, with the policy rate now between 4.25% and 4.50%[5] - Despite the rate cuts, mortgage rates have increased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remaining between 6% and 7%, even surpassing 7% in mid-January 2025[5][6] - The disconnect between short-term interest rates and long-term bond yields has led to rising mortgage rates, driven by inflation concerns[6][7] Group 2: Political Cycle and Immigration - The political cycle in 2025 coincides with a presidential transition, which may alter immigration policies and impact housing demand[2][4] - During the Biden administration (2021-2024), the U.S. population growth rate increased to nearly 1% in 2024, the highest since 2008, primarily due to a surge in net immigration[18][21] - The potential return to stricter immigration policies under a new administration could reverse the current immigration trends, leading to a decrease in housing demand[22] Group 3: Housing Market Outlook - The combination of the interest rate cycle and political changes suggests that the increase in housing prices in 2025 may not match the 4.5% rise seen in 2024[29] - The supply-demand balance in the housing market is improving, with inventory levels for new and existing homes rising compared to previous years[12][28] - The overall housing demand may decline due to reduced immigration and high mortgage rates, leading to a less severe housing shortage[29]