Ping An Securities·2025-02-28 10:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, which is expected to benefit from multiple factors in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The TCM sector is anticipated to experience a gradual reduction in performance pressure in 2025, driven by factors such as improved earnings, favorable policies, decreasing costs, rising demand, and consolidation within the industry [4][6]. - The report identifies five main investment opportunities within the TCM sector, including high-end OTC products, state-owned enterprise reforms, hospital-based TCM, dividend-paying assets, and turnaround situations for struggling companies [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Outlook - The TCM sector faced overall revenue decline in 2024, with a total revenue of 270.61 billion yuan, down 3.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29.88 billion yuan, down 8.55% year-on-year [10]. - The number of companies forecasting negative net profit growth in 2024 is 22 out of 34, while only 12 companies expect positive growth [16]. 2. Policy Developments - The third batch of national TCM procurement results showed an average price reduction of 63%, but the impact on listed companies is limited due to the small number of affected products [20]. - A new essential drug list is expected to be released in 2025, which may include more TCM products, enhancing their market presence [24]. 3. Cost Factors - The TCM material price index has been declining since July 2024, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for TCM companies and improve their gross margins starting in 2025 [28]. 4. Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in flu cases has driven demand for related treatment products, leading to a quicker clearance of inventory for cold and cough medications [34]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The TCM industry is experiencing frequent mergers and acquisitions, which are likely to enhance industry concentration and provide performance flexibility for related listed companies [39]. 6. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights five key investment themes: 1. High-end OTC TCM products, particularly those using natural bezoar as a key ingredient, are expected to see improved margins as supply stabilizes [45][54]. 2. State-owned enterprise reforms are anticipated to yield positive changes in management and strategic planning [7]. 3. Hospital-based TCM products are expected to gain market share due to regulatory support [7]. 4. Companies with strong cash flow and high dividend potential are viewed favorably [7]. 5. Companies currently facing challenges are expected to improve as inventory pressures ease [7]. 7. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Kunming Pharmaceutical, Tongrentang, Darentang, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao, China Resources Sanjiu, Yunnan Baiyao, Tianshili, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, and others for potential investment opportunities [4].