宏观专题：两会前瞻

Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The national two sessions are expected to maintain a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption[5] - Local governments are prioritizing domestic demand expansion, with 13 provinces adjusting their retail sales growth targets for 2025 compared to 2024[11] - The focus on consumption and domestic demand is reflected in the increased frequency of related terms in government work reports, rising from 2 mentions in 2024 to 10 for domestic demand and 9 for consumption in 2025[11][19] Key Areas of Reform and Development - The report highlights four key reform areas: unifying the national market, promoting high-quality development of the private economy, deepening state-owned enterprise reform, and improving the business environment[5][6] - Five major industrial themes for 2025 include AI and AI+, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure expansion overseas, and food security[5][7] Signals from Local Governments - Local two sessions emphasize "expanding domestic demand," focusing on consumption and effective investment[11] - The collective learning sessions indicate a strong push for consumption enhancement, with multiple directives from the State Council aimed at stimulating domestic demand[5][8] - Economic provinces are focusing on "new quality productivity," while debt-reduction provinces are prioritizing "high-quality development" as key areas of attention[5][8] Consumption and Investment Strategies - Specific strategies to boost consumption include implementing trade-in policies and fostering new consumption models such as the "silver economy" and "ice and snow economy"[21][22] - The report suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will work in tandem to support domestic demand expansion and structural adjustments[5][6]