市场高位震荡，行业重回轮动

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline on February 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.98% and the ChiNext Index falling by 3.82%. The total trading volume for the A-share market was 1.91 trillion, a slight decrease of 0.13 trillion compared to the previous day. All sectors, except for food and beverage, saw declines, particularly the previously strong AI and robotics sectors, which led the downturn with declines of 5.36% in computers, 5.08% in communications, 4.84% in electronics, 4.63% in media, and 4.3% in machinery equipment [2][3]. Key Insights - The recent market drop is attributed to several factors: the ongoing decline in U.S. stock markets, renewed tariff threats from the U.S. against China, and a return to rational expectations regarding policies ahead of the National People's Congress (NPC). The U.S. stock market has seen significant declines over the past six trading days, with the Nasdaq down 7.54%, the S&P 500 down 4.6%, and the Dow down 3.11%. This has created a risk-averse environment globally, affecting markets including Hong Kong and Japan [2][3]. - The current market phase is characterized as a high-level volatility and oscillation rather than a sustained downturn. The report suggests that while there is no significant downward risk, the market lacks upward momentum. The expectations for macroeconomic policies from the NPC are likely to align with previous central economic work meetings, indicating no major surprises [3][6]. Sector Rotation and Opportunities - The growth technology sector's current phase appears to be concluding, with opportunities shifting back to sector rotation. The report identifies three main lines of opportunity for March: 1. Infrastructure-related sectors benefiting from strong seasonal effects, particularly in engineering consulting, environmental equipment, and non-metallic materials, supported by NPC policy expectations [6]. 2. Sectors with policy catalysts, such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and home appliances, which may see a phase of valuation recovery due to new policies and previous stagnation [7]. 3. The banking and insurance sectors, which may offer value in a high-volatility market, supported by measures to encourage long-term capital inflows [7]. - The report emphasizes that the growth technology sector has reached a historical upper limit in terms of price and valuation, with multiple instances of significant declines indicating increased market divergence. A typical correction following such a phase could exceed 20% [6].