煤炭开采行业周报：进口与长协双重支撑，煤价企稳预期增强

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term contracts and a reduction in imported coal, which are anticipated to stabilize the domestic coal market [11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Trends - As of February 28, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 694 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is reported at 1420 CNY/ton, a decrease of 30 CNY/ton [34] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - The utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 95.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points week-on-week [4][49] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 70.6 thousand tons/day, while coastal provinces have seen a slight increase of 0.5 thousand tons/day [11] 3. Market Dynamics - The report notes that if port coal prices continue to decline, it may lead to a situation where long-term contract prices are lower than market prices, prompting downstream users to increase market coal purchases [11] - The report highlights that the coal sector is currently experiencing a significant correction, presenting a high cost-performance opportunity for investors [12] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and others [12]