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半导体基石系列之二:制造封装高景气,看好设备材料估值业绩双提升
Changjiang Securities·2025-03-02 03:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [8] Core Insights - The global semiconductor sales are expected to grow by 11% year-on-year to reach $69.72 billion in 2025, driven by the recovery in consumer electronics demand and structural demand from AI technology [2][4] - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 7.7% year-on-year to $12.15 billion in 2025, with a significant contribution from the domestic market in China [2][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of advanced packaging technology in enhancing the performance of domestic chips, suggesting a focus on growth opportunities in upstream equipment and materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The global semiconductor sales are estimated at approximately $62.69 billion in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in 2025 [4] - The growth is primarily driven by the recovery in consumer electronics and the integration of AI technology [4][14] - The supply side shows high capacity utilization rates among leading foundries, with price improvements noted [4][29] Semiconductor Equipment - Global semiconductor equipment sales are expected to reach $112.8 billion in 2024, with a projected increase to $121.5 billion in 2025 [5][46] - The growth rates for wafer fabrication, packaging, and testing equipment are forecasted at 6.8%, 16.0%, and 14.6% respectively [5] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market in China is expected to account for 45% of the total market by the end of 2024 [5][51] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market revenue is projected to recover, with a growth rate of 7% expected in 2024 [6] - Advanced packaging technology is anticipated to create new demand for materials such as PSPI photoresists and bonding adhesives [6][19] Sector Valuation - As of February 27, 2025, the dynamic P/E ratios for semiconductor equipment and materials are 64x and 93x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation environment [7] - The report suggests that the sector is poised for dual drivers of valuation and performance growth due to sustained demand and improved sentiment towards domestic capabilities [7]