ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-03-02 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, is expected to benefit from policy catalysts and market dynamics as the National People's Congress convenes in March 2025. The report suggests actively allocating investments in this sector, especially in the second quarter when the sector enters a low base period [1][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and inventory management in the liquor sector, recommending key players such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai for high-end liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu and Yanghe Brewery for mid-range and regional brands [20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector performed well during the Spring Festival, with regional leaders like Su and Hui wines showing strong results. The report suggests that positioning is more critical than timing, recommending active allocation at current levels [1][20]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: "sustained momentum" and "low base recovery," highlighting high-end liquor recommendations such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, and mid-range options like Gujing Gongjiu and Yanghe Brewery [20]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report outlines two main investment themes for the consumer goods sector in 2025: the "prosperity theme" and the "recovery theme." It emphasizes the importance of new retail channels and the expected policy stimulus for the restaurant supply chain [26]. - Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili Group, focusing on high-prosperity segments and recovery opportunities [26]. Market Performance - From February 21 to February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%, while the liquor sector rose by 1.58%, with notable gains from brands like Jiuziyuan and Zhenjiu Lidong [3][30]. - The consumer goods sector saw significant rebounds in leisure foods and meat products, with leading stocks like Zhuangyuan Ranch and Hainan Yedao showing substantial increases [21][30]. Price Trends - The report tracks key liquor prices, noting that Kweichow Moutai's price remains stable at approximately 2,215 RMB per bottle, while Wuliangye maintains a price of around 950 RMB [19][50].